Standard Chartered makes its first coverage of Ethena, setting a $2 target for ENA by end-2028, roughly 7x based on the current price. On the same day, all ENA incentives for USDe holders were fully halted.

On one side, major banks are laying out a multi-year path: 0.42 by end of this year, 1.10 by end-2027, and $2 by end-2028. The rationale is that the agreement will use about 95% of net income to repurchase and burn.

On the other side, the price jumped from 0.2433 to 0.2811, then fell back to around 0.264. The spike lacked matching volume.

Assessment: the current pricing reflects “institutional endorsement,” not demand itself. The repurchase switch depends on USDe supply returning to about $7.5 billion; based on public discussion, it is still around $4.9 billion, which is more than 60% lower than the peak a year earlier.

What truly matters is the investor portion that is reportedly scheduled for early release around October 5. There are claims estimating it at about 14% of the current circulating supply, but the dates don’t line up across different sources (10/2 vs. 10/5), so it remains to be verified.

According to public discussion, another whale address accumulated roughly 38 million ENA over three days. If that supply can’t be absorbed, what is the meaning of the target price left?