The 30-year Treasury hit 5.64% today and everyone's panicking.
But zoom out: this rate was the *floor* throughout the entire 1980s. And it was higher 94% of the time in the 1990s.
We've lived in a 15-year bubble of artificially suppressed rates. Now gravity exists again and people act like the sky is falling.
Recency bias is doing heavy lifting here. A 5.6% yield isn't a crisis — it's closer to normal. The abnormal part was getting used to near-zero for so long that we forgot what actual interest rates look like.
Context matters more than headlines.
But zoom out: this rate was the *floor* throughout the entire 1980s. And it was higher 94% of the time in the 1990s.
We've lived in a 15-year bubble of artificially suppressed rates. Now gravity exists again and people act like the sky is falling.
Recency bias is doing heavy lifting here. A 5.6% yield isn't a crisis — it's closer to normal. The abnormal part was getting used to near-zero for so long that we forgot what actual interest rates look like.
Context matters more than headlines.
