🗓️ October 1｜Crypto Market Daily
The market isn’t crashing, but it’s clearly entering “high-level digestion.” BTC holds at $83k, ETH is slightly stronger, SOL lags, and the enthusiasm to chase rallies is cooling off.
As of around 09:00 Beijing time:
BTC: $83,488, 24h +0.11%
ETH: $2,684.79, 24h +0.54%
SOL: $117.97, 24h -0.73%
Total market cap is about $2.87 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume around $100.9 billion; BTC dominance is 58.27%. Total market cap has fallen about 2.70% over the past 24 hours, suggesting the index looks calm on the surface, but altcoins inside aren’t doing nearly as well.
Things worth watching today:
1、BTC previously surged to around $87.4k, then returned to the $83k area. CryptoQuant’s bull market score rose to 90/100, but short-term holders still haven’t realized a profit rate of 33%, and spot demand has dropped by about 170k BTC over roughly the last 30 days. The overall trend remains bullish, but there’s already clear short-term profit-taking pressure.
2、U.S. spot ETF inflows are showing marginal slowdown. The latest confirmed public trading day is September 28: BTC ETF net inflows were about $31 million, and ETH ETF net inflows were about $17.1 million. Note: this is data from September 28, not today. Institutional buying is still there, but the strength is far lower than earlier.
3、Coinbase received approval from the CFTC for a derivatives clearing organization, completing the chain of U.S. derivatives business. Regulated trading platforms are continuing to absorb the cross-market between traditional finance and on-chain derivatives.
4、Bitget’s roughly $388 million security incident is still being wrapped up. The official statement says the issue came from vulnerabilities in a third-party security product. BTC withdrawals are back online, and other assets are planned to be restored in stages by October 2. Even big platforms aren’t a safe box—spreading funds and self-custody remain core skills.
5、After the U.S. crypto market structure bill was blocked in the Senate, it’s unlikely to deliver a complete rule set for the industry in the short term. But the SEC has recently released more detailed guidance on matters like token buybacks and functional-network issues. The reality is: the big bill is stuck, but smaller rules continue moving forward.
Next up to watch:
• Tonight’s U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and initial jobless claims data, which directly affects rate and dollar expectations;
• The U.S. non-farm payroll report on October 2, which could amplify BTC volatility;
• October 3: the U.S. regulator’s decision timeline for the 3x BTC/ETH futures ETF application.
My take: As long as BTC remains above the long-term moving averages, the bull-market structure hasn’t been broken—for now. But the sell pressure above $84k–$87k has already been validated. The most dangerous thing right now isn’t being bearish; it’s seeing a “bull market score of 90” and going all-in to chase.
Trading strategy: Keep holding the core spot position and add on pullbacks in batches. Reduce leverage; until BTC can establish itself above $84k with volume, don’t chase breakouts.
Risk warning: The above is only market tracking and personal judgment, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile—watch your position sizing and platform security.
The market isn’t crashing, but it’s clearly entering “high-level digestion.” BTC holds at $83k, ETH is slightly stronger, SOL lags, and the enthusiasm to chase rallies is cooling off.
As of around 09:00 Beijing time:
BTC: $83,488, 24h +0.11%
ETH: $2,684.79, 24h +0.54%
SOL: $117.97, 24h -0.73%
Total market cap is about $2.87 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume around $100.9 billion; BTC dominance is 58.27%. Total market cap has fallen about 2.70% over the past 24 hours, suggesting the index looks calm on the surface, but altcoins inside aren’t doing nearly as well.
Things worth watching today:
1、BTC previously surged to around $87.4k, then returned to the $83k area. CryptoQuant’s bull market score rose to 90/100, but short-term holders still haven’t realized a profit rate of 33%, and spot demand has dropped by about 170k BTC over roughly the last 30 days. The overall trend remains bullish, but there’s already clear short-term profit-taking pressure.
2、U.S. spot ETF inflows are showing marginal slowdown. The latest confirmed public trading day is September 28: BTC ETF net inflows were about $31 million, and ETH ETF net inflows were about $17.1 million. Note: this is data from September 28, not today. Institutional buying is still there, but the strength is far lower than earlier.
3、Coinbase received approval from the CFTC for a derivatives clearing organization, completing the chain of U.S. derivatives business. Regulated trading platforms are continuing to absorb the cross-market between traditional finance and on-chain derivatives.
4、Bitget’s roughly $388 million security incident is still being wrapped up. The official statement says the issue came from vulnerabilities in a third-party security product. BTC withdrawals are back online, and other assets are planned to be restored in stages by October 2. Even big platforms aren’t a safe box—spreading funds and self-custody remain core skills.
5、After the U.S. crypto market structure bill was blocked in the Senate, it’s unlikely to deliver a complete rule set for the industry in the short term. But the SEC has recently released more detailed guidance on matters like token buybacks and functional-network issues. The reality is: the big bill is stuck, but smaller rules continue moving forward.
Next up to watch:
• Tonight’s U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and initial jobless claims data, which directly affects rate and dollar expectations;
• The U.S. non-farm payroll report on October 2, which could amplify BTC volatility;
• October 3: the U.S. regulator’s decision timeline for the 3x BTC/ETH futures ETF application.
My take: As long as BTC remains above the long-term moving averages, the bull-market structure hasn’t been broken—for now. But the sell pressure above $84k–$87k has already been validated. The most dangerous thing right now isn’t being bearish; it’s seeing a “bull market score of 90” and going all-in to chase.
Trading strategy: Keep holding the core spot position and add on pullbacks in batches. Reduce leverage; until BTC can establish itself above $84k with volume, don’t chase breakouts.
Risk warning: The above is only market tracking and personal judgment, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile—watch your position sizing and platform security.