🚨 Futures leverage has been drained: $53 billion in open interest at the lowest level since March—no wave of forced liquidations in the near term
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📊 A research team at a leading exchange says in its latest report that the “borrowed money” in the Bitcoin market has already exited the scene in a big way. Aggregate futures open interest has fallen to the lowest level since March, implied volatility is approaching a one-year low, and even ETF inflows have slowed to roughly just keeping up with the issuance pace of new coins.
🔥 Market data is also confirming this. Total global futures open interest is about $53 billion, with Binance alone accounting for $11.01 billion. On the options side, call options make up more than 60% of open interest. In other words, the money to go long is still there, but the urge to add leverage has clearly ebbed.
💡 The report’s interpretation is straightforward: once leverage has been cleared to a large extent, the next meaningful行情 must be driven by spot demand rather than contracts “spinning” on themselves. They also point to a historical pattern—since 2022, when the combination of “settlement ratio staying high and basis compression” appears, the median price increase over the following 30 days is 8.9%.
📌 There’s also another layer of “take-profit and trapped-position selling pressure” above. The report says the cost in the $82,000 to $84,000 range has been steadily thickening. If the price climbs back above $85,000, it would bring 760,000 Bitcoins between $84,000 and $85,000 back into profit, pushing the winning-positions ratio back above 75%—and those holders would no longer be sellers.
⚠️ Cold water: the premise of this view is that leverage remains at low levels. If the basis rises again and open interest quickly piles back up, the historical combination that has supported upside would no longer hold. Also, the report itself emphasizes that which direction comes next depends on which side this range breaks first—not a one-way bullish bet.
👀 Do you think leverage clearing is good news or bad news? Vote in the comments below👇
Click the profile photo to watch the livestream + join the Jiujiu chat group to get daily strategy 🚀
#比特币 #期货 #Leverage
Group: 点击进入玖玖的粉丝群
📊 A research team at a leading exchange says in its latest report that the “borrowed money” in the Bitcoin market has already exited the scene in a big way. Aggregate futures open interest has fallen to the lowest level since March, implied volatility is approaching a one-year low, and even ETF inflows have slowed to roughly just keeping up with the issuance pace of new coins.
🔥 Market data is also confirming this. Total global futures open interest is about $53 billion, with Binance alone accounting for $11.01 billion. On the options side, call options make up more than 60% of open interest. In other words, the money to go long is still there, but the urge to add leverage has clearly ebbed.
💡 The report’s interpretation is straightforward: once leverage has been cleared to a large extent, the next meaningful行情 must be driven by spot demand rather than contracts “spinning” on themselves. They also point to a historical pattern—since 2022, when the combination of “settlement ratio staying high and basis compression” appears, the median price increase over the following 30 days is 8.9%.
📌 There’s also another layer of “take-profit and trapped-position selling pressure” above. The report says the cost in the $82,000 to $84,000 range has been steadily thickening. If the price climbs back above $85,000, it would bring 760,000 Bitcoins between $84,000 and $85,000 back into profit, pushing the winning-positions ratio back above 75%—and those holders would no longer be sellers.
⚠️ Cold water: the premise of this view is that leverage remains at low levels. If the basis rises again and open interest quickly piles back up, the historical combination that has supported upside would no longer hold. Also, the report itself emphasizes that which direction comes next depends on which side this range breaks first—not a one-way bullish bet.
👀 Do you think leverage clearing is good news or bad news? Vote in the comments below👇
Click the profile photo to watch the livestream + join the Jiujiu chat group to get daily strategy 🚀
#比特币 #期货 #Leverage
