10.1 Chen Jie Morning Analysis
In the evening, focus on the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims (expected 200k) and the sentiment ahead of the non-farm payrolls. Official reserves are solid (+20.22 tons), but ETF holdings saw another net outflow of -1.71 tons on the day, indicating a firm willingness to take profits after pushing higher. Yesterday’s price surged to 4219, but then faced a cliff-like selloff. Both the daily and 4-hour charts recorded extremely long upper wicks. The session opened at 4163 in the morning, came under pressure, and is currently trading around 4155. The earlier spike has already completed a sweep of long positions; the intraday tone is mainly to sell rallies by using resistance as support.
On both the 4-hour and daily charts, the very long upper shadow at 4219 remains. By the close, price quickly fell back below the 4-hour Bollinger midline (4166) and the 1-hour Bollinger midline (4174).
On the 15-minute chart, the lower band is at 4149, and on the 1-hour chart the lower band points to 4141. If the prior rise-low point of 4147 breaks down again, it will accelerate a test of the previous major bottom at 4110 and the 4-hour lower band (4095).
Trading Plan
Around 4160–4170, sell on rallies, targeting 4130–4100–4070. Invalidation/stop: 4184 #xau $XAU
In the evening, focus on the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims (expected 200k) and the sentiment ahead of the non-farm payrolls. Official reserves are solid (+20.22 tons), but ETF holdings saw another net outflow of -1.71 tons on the day, indicating a firm willingness to take profits after pushing higher. Yesterday’s price surged to 4219, but then faced a cliff-like selloff. Both the daily and 4-hour charts recorded extremely long upper wicks. The session opened at 4163 in the morning, came under pressure, and is currently trading around 4155. The earlier spike has already completed a sweep of long positions; the intraday tone is mainly to sell rallies by using resistance as support.
On both the 4-hour and daily charts, the very long upper shadow at 4219 remains. By the close, price quickly fell back below the 4-hour Bollinger midline (4166) and the 1-hour Bollinger midline (4174).
On the 15-minute chart, the lower band is at 4149, and on the 1-hour chart the lower band points to 4141. If the prior rise-low point of 4147 breaks down again, it will accelerate a test of the previous major bottom at 4110 and the 4-hour lower band (4095).
Trading Plan
Around 4160–4170, sell on rallies, targeting 4130–4100–4070. Invalidation/stop: 4184 #xau $XAU