$LIT This -10.49% daily candle is hanging on the chart like the trend has gone bad. But when you look back over the last 30 days, the price is still up +11%. What’s really worth watching isn’t this red candle—it’s the volume that came out during this selloff. The 24h trading volume is $334M, against a market cap of $998M; the turnover rate is over one-third. Compared with the $57M volume at the start of September, the current money scale is already on a completely different level.
That big bullish candle before the price made a new high has been slowly absorbed by a high-volume red candle. What’s happening on the board is a transfer of positions, not just simple downside.
What I care about more is that $LIT is still -49% away from its ATH. Meanwhile, the bullish candle on September 4 that surged from $3.78 to $4.44 is still a key watershed. If this pullback can hold above the $3.65–$3.78 range, then this “crash” is only a severe retracement in the middle of the 30-day move. If that level is lost, then this price area becomes the “anchor” zone for the past month, and the $4.00 support could turn into resistance.
The real thing that needs confirmation is whether this $334M of volume is incoming demand or an exit. If volume tapers off over the next two days and the price chops around near $3.90, then that prior bullish candle is still valid. But if the selling continues with increasing volume, then the gains that $LIT accumulated over the past 30 days will most likely only remain as a structural reference.
The easiest risk to overlook is this: between $4.60 and $3.93 there isn’t a clear high-volume concentration zone. Is the drop a “vacuum free-fall,” or is it being “absorbed”? And what about the unusual spike in volume of $66M on September 28—could that be an early signal of some marginal change?—I’ll leave you with the question: which variable is most likely to overturn my current judgment?
That big bullish candle before the price made a new high has been slowly absorbed by a high-volume red candle. What’s happening on the board is a transfer of positions, not just simple downside.
What I care about more is that $LIT is still -49% away from its ATH. Meanwhile, the bullish candle on September 4 that surged from $3.78 to $4.44 is still a key watershed. If this pullback can hold above the $3.65–$3.78 range, then this “crash” is only a severe retracement in the middle of the 30-day move. If that level is lost, then this price area becomes the “anchor” zone for the past month, and the $4.00 support could turn into resistance.
The real thing that needs confirmation is whether this $334M of volume is incoming demand or an exit. If volume tapers off over the next two days and the price chops around near $3.90, then that prior bullish candle is still valid. But if the selling continues with increasing volume, then the gains that $LIT accumulated over the past 30 days will most likely only remain as a structural reference.
The easiest risk to overlook is this: between $4.60 and $3.93 there isn’t a clear high-volume concentration zone. Is the drop a “vacuum free-fall,” or is it being “absorbed”? And what about the unusual spike in volume of $66M on September 28—could that be an early signal of some marginal change?—I’ll leave you with the question: which variable is most likely to overturn my current judgment?