As the Asian market just opened, oil prices first jumped: Brent rose 3% to above $98. The trigger was that the Strait of Hormuz saw three more ships hit. But what’s really interesting is another set of data—Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf crude exports have already rebounded to 19 million barrels per day, while JPMorgan said they’ve recovered to 98% of pre-war levels. Bombs explode, but oil supply has not run short.
Now the most tangled part is this: geopolitics is calling the shots, while supply is undercutting. The latest EIA inventory report unexpectedly showed an increase of 922,000 barrels, whereas the market had expected a draw. In the short term, oil prices are propped up purely by panic. If negotiations do make real progress someday, this 3% gain may be given back almost exactly as-is. On the U.S.-Iran front, Iran has submitted to senior officials a counterproposal for a ceasefire—Trump, meanwhile, publicly won’t concede on sanctions in exchange for nuclear concessions. Qatar is relaying messages in between, and it’s still too early for any decisive agreement.
Compared with that, $BTC looks a lot calmer. It’s hovering around $83,600, with less than 0.5% fluctuation over 24 hours. After fighting has gone on for so long, crypto markets are basically immune to Middle East news, which suggests that on-platform capital simply isn’t treating geopolitical risk as the main logic—they’re all waiting for genuinely catalytic developments.
My take: don’t chase the wave of sentiment that oil prices are dragging along. The turning-point window for $BTC is at the moment a ceasefire deal is actually implemented—or talks break down. Volatility will be released all at once. In this kind of lukewarm, range-bound environment, it’s best to move less and watch more.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #BTC #原油 #地缘政治 #Crypto market
Now the most tangled part is this: geopolitics is calling the shots, while supply is undercutting. The latest EIA inventory report unexpectedly showed an increase of 922,000 barrels, whereas the market had expected a draw. In the short term, oil prices are propped up purely by panic. If negotiations do make real progress someday, this 3% gain may be given back almost exactly as-is. On the U.S.-Iran front, Iran has submitted to senior officials a counterproposal for a ceasefire—Trump, meanwhile, publicly won’t concede on sanctions in exchange for nuclear concessions. Qatar is relaying messages in between, and it’s still too early for any decisive agreement.
Compared with that, $BTC looks a lot calmer. It’s hovering around $83,600, with less than 0.5% fluctuation over 24 hours. After fighting has gone on for so long, crypto markets are basically immune to Middle East news, which suggests that on-platform capital simply isn’t treating geopolitical risk as the main logic—they’re all waiting for genuinely catalytic developments.
My take: don’t chase the wave of sentiment that oil prices are dragging along. The turning-point window for $BTC is at the moment a ceasefire deal is actually implemented—or talks break down. Volatility will be released all at once. In this kind of lukewarm, range-bound environment, it’s best to move less and watch more.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #BTC #原油 #地缘政治 #Crypto market