$ENA My intuition tells me this leg of the rally isn’t over yet, but the past three days’ candles are genuinely uncomfortable: on Sep 26, trading volume suddenly jumped to $1.06B and price surged to $0.28; then over the next two days, volume shrank back to only about $0.5–0.6B, and price began to move sideways. This intuition needs validation—not whether price can hold above $0.28, but whether, after the low-volume consolidation, a volume comes back at the same level. I don’t think $0.262 is a good spot to bet on direction, because it sits right at the upper edge of the 30-day cost-dense zone.
From the chart, over the past 30 days price moved from $0.14 to $0.28, up 75%, but the real change happened on Sep 26: it was the only day when trading volume broke into double digits and price briefly flashed above $0.27. The subsequent two-day pullback to $0.24 didn’t break it, which suggests there is still willingness to buy on the dip—but don’t ignore the fact that this is a technical rebound after a drop from the historical high of $1.52, down 82%. As for whether it’s a trend reversal, what I care about more is whether the retail solvency rate of sUSDe has turned positive. If that number can’t keep up with the price, then the upside is only a “single-leg” bull run from swap positions.
The easiest risk to overlook is on Oct 1, when the $0.262 close came with volume of only $362M—down 65% directly from the launch day’s $1.06B. This implies the incoming capital that was supposed to buy has already been absorbed; if it pushes higher again but with volume still lower than $785M, there’s a good chance it will return toward the $0.24 area to find support again. ENA’s price action doesn’t depend on that “21st market cap” tag—it depends on whether Southern capital continues to go long in the perp market.
The signal that the logic has failed is very clear: if this week’s volume can consistently stay above $600M and then another bullish candle breaks above the prior high, then my “high volatility—don’t chase” judgment is wrong. You can infer back to the original thesis from the price-volume relationship of this past Friday’s close—that’s the honest way to test it.
From the chart, over the past 30 days price moved from $0.14 to $0.28, up 75%, but the real change happened on Sep 26: it was the only day when trading volume broke into double digits and price briefly flashed above $0.27. The subsequent two-day pullback to $0.24 didn’t break it, which suggests there is still willingness to buy on the dip—but don’t ignore the fact that this is a technical rebound after a drop from the historical high of $1.52, down 82%. As for whether it’s a trend reversal, what I care about more is whether the retail solvency rate of sUSDe has turned positive. If that number can’t keep up with the price, then the upside is only a “single-leg” bull run from swap positions.
The easiest risk to overlook is on Oct 1, when the $0.262 close came with volume of only $362M—down 65% directly from the launch day’s $1.06B. This implies the incoming capital that was supposed to buy has already been absorbed; if it pushes higher again but with volume still lower than $785M, there’s a good chance it will return toward the $0.24 area to find support again. ENA’s price action doesn’t depend on that “21st market cap” tag—it depends on whether Southern capital continues to go long in the perp market.
The signal that the logic has failed is very clear: if this week’s volume can consistently stay above $600M and then another bullish candle breaks above the prior high, then my “high volatility—don’t chase” judgment is wrong. You can infer back to the original thesis from the price-volume relationship of this past Friday’s close—that’s the honest way to test it.