#US 30-year Treasury yield breaks 5.6%, highest since 2002
These past two days, U.S. Treasuries have really blown my mind.
The 30-year yield has surged to around 5.62%, the highest since 2002; the 10-year briefly touched 5.29% as well. A few days ago I was saying that having the 10-year above 5% was already scary—turns out long-dated bonds had no intention of stopping.
Even more outrageous: after Williams “bailed” earlier and rate-hike expectations clearly eased, the long end still kept pushing higher. This suggests the market isn’t just worried about whether the Fed will raise rates; the U.S. fiscal deficit, the massive issuance of new debt ahead, and inflation that won’t come down are all already being priced into long-term Treasuries.
What does a 30-year Treasury yield of 5.6% even mean? You don’t need to do anything—just holding the government bonds gets you over 5%. For richly valued tech stocks, <$BTC > if you want to keep pushing higher, you’ll need to give capital an even bigger reason.
But in such an extreme position, I don’t want to go straight short. If 5.6% can’t break through and instead starts drifting down to 5.5% and 5.4%, I’ll be ready to re-enter <$XAU > and tech stocks. If 5.6% holds steady and it really heads toward 6%, then I’ll definitely take some profits first.
Previously, every day I’d open and check $BTC first. Now, the first thing I do when I wake up is check U.S. Treasuries. If this keeps running, Treasuries will almost become more “stimulating” than the crypto market.
$BTC #BTC #US Treasuries
These past two days, U.S. Treasuries have really blown my mind.
The 30-year yield has surged to around 5.62%, the highest since 2002; the 10-year briefly touched 5.29% as well. A few days ago I was saying that having the 10-year above 5% was already scary—turns out long-dated bonds had no intention of stopping.
Even more outrageous: after Williams “bailed” earlier and rate-hike expectations clearly eased, the long end still kept pushing higher. This suggests the market isn’t just worried about whether the Fed will raise rates; the U.S. fiscal deficit, the massive issuance of new debt ahead, and inflation that won’t come down are all already being priced into long-term Treasuries.
What does a 30-year Treasury yield of 5.6% even mean? You don’t need to do anything—just holding the government bonds gets you over 5%. For richly valued tech stocks, <$BTC > if you want to keep pushing higher, you’ll need to give capital an even bigger reason.
But in such an extreme position, I don’t want to go straight short. If 5.6% can’t break through and instead starts drifting down to 5.5% and 5.4%, I’ll be ready to re-enter <$XAU > and tech stocks. If 5.6% holds steady and it really heads toward 6%, then I’ll definitely take some profits first.
Previously, every day I’d open and check $BTC first. Now, the first thing I do when I wake up is check U.S. Treasuries. If this keeps running, Treasuries will almost become more “stimulating” than the crypto market.
$BTC #BTC #US Treasuries