How to look at BTC and ETH in October?
My view for October is still slightly bullish, but I donโt see it as a straight line upward. Itโs more likely to be โrally, consolidation/whipsaw, then a further choice of direction.โ
First, letโs talk about BTC.
Currently BTC is ranging around 84K. In the short term, the key support to watch is 82Kโ83K. On the upside, first look at 85Kโ87K, then 90Kโ92K.
Over the past week, U.S. spot BTC ETF net inflows were about $2.4 billion, which suggests institutional capital is still being absorbed. At the same time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already risen to above 5.2%, and macro pressure is also increasing.
So in October, the most important thing for BTC isnโt trying to guess the top, but seeing whether key support can keep moving higher.
As long as 82Kโ83K holds, any pullback is more likely to be understood as consolidation/whipsaw within the uptrend. If 85Kโ87K is broken through again and able to hold, then the next target is around 90K.
If 82Kโ83K breaks down, then look at 80Kโ81K.
Now ETH.
ETH is currently around 2600โ2700, and it has already tested around 2800 multiple times.
Recently, the spot ETH ETF saw about $690 million in net inflows over the week, and BitMineโs holdings have also broken through 6 million ETH. The institutional capital and the long-term allocation logic still remain.
So in October, I mainly watch:
Whether 2600โ2660 can hold;
Whether 2750โ2820 can break through;
If 2800 truly holds, then look next at around 3000.
But if the attempt to push above 2800 fails again, ETH may continue ranging between 2600โ2800, or even pull back to lower support.
In October, there are also several very important macro events:
U.S. September Non-Farm Payrolls will be released on October 2;
September CPI will be released on October 14;
The FOMC meeting will be held on October 27โ28.
So my October outlook is simple:
BTC: as long as 82Kโ83K holds, watch 85Kโ87K; after a breakout, look at 90Kโ92K.
ETH: as long as 2600โ2660 holds, watch 2750โ2820; if 2800 breaks through, then look at 3000.
For the bigger picture, Iโm still bullish, but I wonโt chase.
What really matters in October isnโt guessing every day whether prices will rise or fall, but waiting for the market to confirm support and resistance one by one.
If the trend isnโt broken, be patient and wait. If resistance hasnโt been broken, donโt FOMO. And if you see consolidation/whipsaw, donโt casually treat it as a reversal.
No trade calls, no follow-along tradesโjust sharing my trading logic and market views.