30.09.2026 21:00 (Kyiv time) #solana #FOMO
The morning forecast played out exactly in the intended direction and exceeded all positive targets. At first, SOL stayed within the base channel. After the release of PCE, the price broke through $120.5, hit both forecast targets, and then rose by about another dollar to $122.91. However, it failed to hold above the breakout level, and the entire post-inflation impulse was sold off.
So, the bullish scenario was fully realized, but it ended with a false breakout and a return to the morning support.
Scenarios for the next 12 hours
Base case (45%): The range is $117.8–120.1. After a sharp intraday cycle, the most likely outcome is stabilization around $118.5–119.5. Due to the 15m oversold condition, an initial rebound is possible, but the $119.7–120.1 zone will limit buyers. The scenario holds as long as there is no hourly close below $117.8 or above $120.1–120.3.
Bearish (30%): Breakout of $117.8 → $116.9–117.2 → $115.8–116.2. The first warning will be the loss of $118.6–118.7. The key confirmation is an hourly close below the daily low of $118.01. The $116.9–117.2 zone aligns with the lower 4H Bollinger Band. Losing it will open the way to $115.8–116.2.
Bullish (25%): Reclaiming above $120.1–120.3 → $121.0–121.3 → $122.0–122.9.
Main takeaway: the morning bullish scenario not only played out—it exceeded all targets, but the move toward $122.91 turned out to be a false breakout. Right now, SOL has returned to support at $118.7–119.0. Due to the 15m oversold condition, a rebound is possible, but without reclaiming above $120.1–120.3, the advantage remains with the sellers.
This is a subjective interpretation of the charts and is not investment advice regarding buying or selling.