In CryptoQuant’s September 29 report, it poured cold water on this leg of the rally.
For short-term holders, the on-chain unrealized profit margin rose to 33%, the highest in 21 months—the last time was in December 2024. On September 22, coin holders cashed out 25,700 BTC in profits in one go, setting a 2026 single-day record.
Demand is also cooling: over the past 30 days, the apparent spot demand shrank by about 170,000 BTC; speculative futures demand fell from 164,000 BTC on September 14 to just 16,000 BTC on September 29. Research director Julio Moreno put it plainly—without new demand coming in, it’s hard for the uptrend to continue. The support levels he cited are the 365-day moving average at around $80,000 and the 200-day moving average at around $71,000.
My take: this is more likely a rotation during a bull market rather than a top, but the cost-effectiveness of “chasing now” isn’t great. I’d rather wait and reassess around the $80,000 area. Would you add $BTC at the current level, or wait for it to drop one round first?
For short-term holders, the on-chain unrealized profit margin rose to 33%, the highest in 21 months—the last time was in December 2024. On September 22, coin holders cashed out 25,700 BTC in profits in one go, setting a 2026 single-day record.
Demand is also cooling: over the past 30 days, the apparent spot demand shrank by about 170,000 BTC; speculative futures demand fell from 164,000 BTC on September 14 to just 16,000 BTC on September 29. Research director Julio Moreno put it plainly—without new demand coming in, it’s hard for the uptrend to continue. The support levels he cited are the 365-day moving average at around $80,000 and the 200-day moving average at around $71,000.
My take: this is more likely a rotation during a bull market rather than a top, but the cost-effectiveness of “chasing now” isn’t great. I’d rather wait and reassess around the $80,000 area. Would you add $BTC at the current level, or wait for it to drop one round first?