I. Crypto Market Quick Brief

1. Top trader RunnerXBT

Beijing time September 30 at 18:42 update:

BTC’s lower time-frame structure above 82,830 (green line) is very good. ETH doesn’t have a specific key price level, but it’s clearly much stronger than BTC.

Beijing time September 30 at 20:42 update:

Continue holding the long position, at least until the mid-term election—there won’t be any new developments in the Iran war; it’s basically just going to keep dragging on. AI is a bubble. In a few years, the government will ultimately step in to bail it out, but in the short term it won’t pose a threat to the market; the market will only go up.

Honestly, this is one of the easier judgments to make. My thought is: if PCE data is moderate, ETFs will buy massive amounts of crypto.

 

Updated at 21:56 Beijing time on September 30:

Right now, the most bullish thing about Bitcoin for me is the order flow—since the low near $60,000, measured in coin units, BTC’s OI has already fallen by 20%, and it’s gone through large-scale deleveraging.

After the Clarity Act setback, SEC/CFTC news is also good, but it’s more of a positive factor at the narrative and market sentiment level.

 

(RunnerXBT is still bullish on the crypto market until the U.S. midterm elections.)

 

2. Top trader Pentoshi

 

Updated at 20:37 Beijing time on September 1:

ETH price action:

Brothers, I’m just joking.

 

(Pentoshi thinks ETH will chop sideways, then break out, then chop sideways again—cycling back to a selloff.)

 

3. Trader Vivian

 

Updated at 20:03 Beijing time on September 30:

Good morning! All long positions and spot positions are still being held for now. BTC is still oscillating within a bull-flag formation and hasn’t broken out yet. We expect a breakout around 8:30 this morning (GDP data release).

The pullback after the breakout at the New York open: the new entry point is after 85,555, at 84,444. For now, we’re only continuing to hold the positions we already entered, and no structure has been broken—so there’s no need to panic-sell.

BTC is consolidating within the range. We still have time to add to our swing long positions. I can’t guarantee a breakout today because the aggressive order flow hasn’t come in yet. They usually arrive along with news.

Once the bull flag breaks upward, we can continue adding to our long positions.

 

Updated at 20:30 Beijing time on September 30:

GDP shows economic growth, meaning this is good news. So a breakout is happening now. We can go long again during the pullback after the New York open. This is a confirmed entry point, and also the last time to enter swing long positions at the New York open. After that, we can’t open any new positions. Remember this.

But don’t rush. Below $85,000 it’s still just range rotation and not a breakout. The real breakout is breaking $85,555. The pullback after the breakout is the entry point. Before that, price is only oscillating between the top and bottom of the range—there isn’t a real trend move.

 

Updated at 20:40 Beijing time on September 30:

A breakout at 8:30 is valid. The weekly opening price has been reclaimed within a single K-line. If you’re currently on the sidelines watching, ETH at $2,750 and the trades planned in the T2 channel are all new entry opportunities.

When New York opens, I will only enter ZEC, like some people did in the past few days. When I enter, I will let everyone know. I also think BONK spot is a new entry opportunity during the pullback after it breaks above $85,555. I will also let everyone know when I buy.

Our Q4 portfolio only has XRP and BONK. There’s no need to be in a hurry. BTC is still below the upper edge of the consolidation range; the $85,000 breakout hasn’t happened yet. This is a slow upward move, and the current price is right at the top of the consolidation range.

The altcoin season usually isn’t only one wave. Every time you chase a green candle, you’ll end up getting hurt.

 

(Vivian performed steadily today. She successfully anticipated the 20:30 Beijing time data being favorable, and also anticipated the pullback right after the U.S. stock market opened. She plans to go long BTC, take partial profits at 88,888, and take all profits at 93,000.)

 

4. Wave theory Liu Yudong

BTC September 30, 2026

The purple line adjustment has reached its third leg.

(1) If it doesn’t fall below the green dashed line, then it’s considered a blue 5-2 pullback.

Then it’s blue 5-3, blue 5-4, blue 5-5.

(2) But if it falls below the green dashed line, then it’s considered that the entire blue-line upward move is over and the market has entered a correction.

The adjustment is 0.2 to 0.618 of the entire blue line. Then there is another rise.

It broke above 84,355, and it’s believed the purple line can’t complete a downward push.

And it’s more likely to be an abc adjustment.

CRCL September 30, 2026

The green line is wave a / wave 1, and the blue line is wave b / wave 2.

The second segment of the blue line has consumed 0.7 of the first segment,

This suggests that the correction is likely a platform pattern or a combination pattern.

Looking for the endpoint of the blue line. After you find the endpoint, the next upmove will be at the same level as the green line.

If it breaks below 86.55, expect continued adjustment. Support is at 80.56 and 75.2.

 

(Liu Yudong thinks BTC’s current decline is just a correction; after the correction, it will continue to rise.)

 

II. Summary

 

Yesterday’s article direction wasn’t a big issue. It was bearish on oil and bullish on crypto. Although the process was quite bumpy, CL’s lowest price hit 88.5 early this morning and then it bounced. The downside target is around 86. $BTC also repeatedly dropped to around 82,700; tonight, driven by a positive PCE data move in the U.S., it rose to 85,580 and then fell again. For now, my judgment is that it will rebound first, then trade sideways and upward.

After the last surge, BTC and major altcoins have been consolidating for more than a week. Do short-term trades within the consolidation range. If you want to hold through to the next breakout, you’ll need a lot of patience and an excellent entry position.

Finally, I wish everyone a happy National Day holiday!

 

Statement:

The information above is for reference only and is not trading advice. Trading is high risk; participate cautiously.

 

 

 

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