Late-night trading in the US session—oil and gold are both going wild today.
Trump just during the day doubled down and said they won’t ease up on sanctions against Iran; Brent promptly jumped and broke above $103. Then Goldman threw out a piece of data: Persian Gulf oil exports have already recovered to the 2025 average level. Saudi exports are even higher than the average—yet Iran’s seaborne crude oil exports in September are zero. WTI promptly sank 4% on the spot, hovering around $88.
On one side, there’s a war-premium; on the other, the physical market really is moving. That’s what’s most disgusting about this kind of news-driven market—both bulls and bears can make a case, and it’s tailor-made for people who rush in with stubborn conviction.
I also noted two other things: the US is preparing to release 40 million barrels from strategic reserves to pressure prices—Texas diesel has even entered an emergency status; and the Bank of Korea announced it will restart purchases of physical gold in December, the first time in 13 years. Central banks stockpiling gold never really stopped in times of chaos—$XAU ’s ace card has always been them.
$BTC right now is basically a puppet on the macro sentiment strings: when tensions escalate, it hedges; when oil falls, it gets dragged down along with risk assets. Don’t guess the direction—just watch the ships around the Strait of Hormuz and the negotiation table.
My own take: the drawdown of geopolitical premium is always slower than when it surges. Be cautious if you’re chasing oil or trying to buy the dip based on volatility.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #原油 #黄金 #地缘政治 #Macro economy
Trump just during the day doubled down and said they won’t ease up on sanctions against Iran; Brent promptly jumped and broke above $103. Then Goldman threw out a piece of data: Persian Gulf oil exports have already recovered to the 2025 average level. Saudi exports are even higher than the average—yet Iran’s seaborne crude oil exports in September are zero. WTI promptly sank 4% on the spot, hovering around $88.
On one side, there’s a war-premium; on the other, the physical market really is moving. That’s what’s most disgusting about this kind of news-driven market—both bulls and bears can make a case, and it’s tailor-made for people who rush in with stubborn conviction.
I also noted two other things: the US is preparing to release 40 million barrels from strategic reserves to pressure prices—Texas diesel has even entered an emergency status; and the Bank of Korea announced it will restart purchases of physical gold in December, the first time in 13 years. Central banks stockpiling gold never really stopped in times of chaos—$XAU ’s ace card has always been them.
$BTC right now is basically a puppet on the macro sentiment strings: when tensions escalate, it hedges; when oil falls, it gets dragged down along with risk assets. Don’t guess the direction—just watch the ships around the Strait of Hormuz and the negotiation table.
My own take: the drawdown of geopolitical premium is always slower than when it surges. Be cautious if you’re chasing oil or trying to buy the dip based on volatility.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #原油 #黄金 #地缘政治 #Macro economy