I added another batch on $ADBE , and my position is larger than before.
First, the location. This asset has been grinding in a pretty uncomfortable range for a while. On the upside, there’s heavy overhead pressure from dense prior trading. On the downside, only near the integer-level support do people seem willing to take it. Overall market sentiment is cautious; tech-related assets, in general, haven’t broken out into their own independent trend. So this add-on, in essence, is buying a slightly left-leaning position—not chasing a trend that’s already taken off. The rationale is also straightforward: after it has fallen to this point, the bad news has largely been reflected in the price. The upside and downside correction potential is not symmetrical—there isn’t an equal amount of room either further down or back up. What to watch out for is this: if the overall market delivers another wave of valuation-dumping, it will likely move with it; it won’t necessarily hold up just because it looks cheap.
Now, the story. Over the past year, the narrative the market discussed the most has been that this company is “killed by AI.” The subscription model of creative software has been questioned—whether it will be overwhelmed by generative tools. Now this narrative is being brought back into the conversation. Note: it’s not a reversal; it’s being reopened for debate. On one side: whether AI features can truly turn into incremental revenue in real terms. On the other side: whether the strategy will change after the new leadership takes over. Today, market voices are also moving in this direction—some people are starting to treat AI growth and the new management team as reasons to revalue the company. This suggests that at least some capital is willing to sit down and listen to the story, but it’s far from the point of everyone collectively buying in.
After averaging in, I’m not focused on whether it goes up today. I’m focused on whether it can compress the trading volume within this range and hold the bottom. If it can hold, then there’s a chance for the story to be repriced. If it can’t, then we’ll just have to wait.
First, the location. This asset has been grinding in a pretty uncomfortable range for a while. On the upside, there’s heavy overhead pressure from dense prior trading. On the downside, only near the integer-level support do people seem willing to take it. Overall market sentiment is cautious; tech-related assets, in general, haven’t broken out into their own independent trend. So this add-on, in essence, is buying a slightly left-leaning position—not chasing a trend that’s already taken off. The rationale is also straightforward: after it has fallen to this point, the bad news has largely been reflected in the price. The upside and downside correction potential is not symmetrical—there isn’t an equal amount of room either further down or back up. What to watch out for is this: if the overall market delivers another wave of valuation-dumping, it will likely move with it; it won’t necessarily hold up just because it looks cheap.
Now, the story. Over the past year, the narrative the market discussed the most has been that this company is “killed by AI.” The subscription model of creative software has been questioned—whether it will be overwhelmed by generative tools. Now this narrative is being brought back into the conversation. Note: it’s not a reversal; it’s being reopened for debate. On one side: whether AI features can truly turn into incremental revenue in real terms. On the other side: whether the strategy will change after the new leadership takes over. Today, market voices are also moving in this direction—some people are starting to treat AI growth and the new management team as reasons to revalue the company. This suggests that at least some capital is willing to sit down and listen to the story, but it’s far from the point of everyone collectively buying in.
After averaging in, I’m not focused on whether it goes up today. I’m focused on whether it can compress the trading volume within this range and hold the bottom. If it can hold, then there’s a chance for the story to be repriced. If it can’t, then we’ll just have to wait.
