Fed rate hike odds just collapsed from 65% to 34%.
This is a major shift. Markets had been pricing in a decent chance of another hike — now that probability has been cut nearly in half.
Why this matters:
1. Liquidity stays loose longer. When the Fed pauses or pivots, risk assets typically rally. Crypto, tech, growth stocks — they all benefit when borrowing costs stop climbing.
2. The narrative is changing. A few weeks ago, the consensus was "higher for longer." Now the market is betting the Fed is done tightening, or very close to it.
3. This opens the door for a potential rate cut in 2024. If inflation keeps cooling and growth slows, the Fed could shift from hiking to cutting faster than most expect.
For $BTC and risk assets, this is bullish. Lower rate expectations = weaker dollar, higher liquidity, and more appetite for speculative plays.
Watch the next CPI and jobs data closely. If they come in soft, the odds of a hike could drop even further — and that's when things get interesting.
This is a major shift. Markets had been pricing in a decent chance of another hike — now that probability has been cut nearly in half.
Why this matters:
1. Liquidity stays loose longer. When the Fed pauses or pivots, risk assets typically rally. Crypto, tech, growth stocks — they all benefit when borrowing costs stop climbing.
2. The narrative is changing. A few weeks ago, the consensus was "higher for longer." Now the market is betting the Fed is done tightening, or very close to it.
3. This opens the door for a potential rate cut in 2024. If inflation keeps cooling and growth slows, the Fed could shift from hiking to cutting faster than most expect.
For $BTC and risk assets, this is bullish. Lower rate expectations = weaker dollar, higher liquidity, and more appetite for speculative plays.
Watch the next CPI and jobs data closely. If they come in soft, the odds of a hike could drop even further — and that's when things get interesting.
