#美国核心PCE降至3 %
U.S. August core PCE year-over-year came in at 3.0%, below expectations of 3.3%, and down from the prior 3.3%; month-over-month was 0.2%, below expectations of 0.3%, and remains a key inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve.
After the data release, CME FedWatch showed a sharp drop in the probability of a rate hike in October. U.S. Treasury yields fell, the U.S. dollar weakened, and risk assets across the board received a boost.
Positives:
1. Inflation is cooling; the market has scaled back rate-hike bets, easing the pressure from high interest rates. Treasury yields also declined, supporting the valuation recovery of gold, crypto, and other risk assets.
2. Inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target; the market has begun pricing in expectations of future rate cuts, improving risk appetite.
3. Consumer data still shows resilience, lowering the risk of a hard landing.
Negatives:
1. 3% remains significantly above the Fed’s 2% target; inflation stickiness persists. The Fed is unlikely to pivot to rate cuts immediately and still retains the option of further hikes.
2. One month’s data does not represent a trend. If inflation rebounds later, rate-hike expectations will rise again.
3. Employment data remains strong, limiting the Fed’s room to ease.
Outlook:
In the near term, risk assets are favorable. BTC, ETH, and gold have gained rebound momentum. However, the market still depends on upcoming CPI and employment data. If inflation reverts or proves volatile, macro headwinds may return.
U.S. August core PCE year-over-year came in at 3.0%, below expectations of 3.3%, and down from the prior 3.3%; month-over-month was 0.2%, below expectations of 0.3%, and remains a key inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve.
After the data release, CME FedWatch showed a sharp drop in the probability of a rate hike in October. U.S. Treasury yields fell, the U.S. dollar weakened, and risk assets across the board received a boost.
Positives:
1. Inflation is cooling; the market has scaled back rate-hike bets, easing the pressure from high interest rates. Treasury yields also declined, supporting the valuation recovery of gold, crypto, and other risk assets.
2. Inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target; the market has begun pricing in expectations of future rate cuts, improving risk appetite.
3. Consumer data still shows resilience, lowering the risk of a hard landing.
Negatives:
1. 3% remains significantly above the Fed’s 2% target; inflation stickiness persists. The Fed is unlikely to pivot to rate cuts immediately and still retains the option of further hikes.
2. One month’s data does not represent a trend. If inflation rebounds later, rate-hike expectations will rise again.
3. Employment data remains strong, limiting the Fed’s room to ease.
Outlook:
In the near term, risk assets are favorable. BTC, ETH, and gold have gained rebound momentum. However, the market still depends on upcoming CPI and employment data. If inflation reverts or proves volatile, macro headwinds may return.