Tonight’s PCE: a “split” kind of data, with a BTC-friendly outcome.
Core PCE m/m came in at 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast; y/y was 3.0%, below 3.3%—inflation is falling.
But on the other side: consumer spending +0.9% (the biggest one-year increase), and Q2 GDP final at 2.2%—the economy is still hot.
Inflation down + growth not collapsing = the soft-landing narrative returns.
Market reaction: BTC surged to 84,452; 2Y yields -4.6bp; gold +0.6%.
Rate-hike odds for November: 88% → 60-70%.
Core PCE m/m came in at 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast; y/y was 3.0%, below 3.3%—inflation is falling.
But on the other side: consumer spending +0.9% (the biggest one-year increase), and Q2 GDP final at 2.2%—the economy is still hot.
Inflation down + growth not collapsing = the soft-landing narrative returns.
Market reaction: BTC surged to 84,452; 2Y yields -4.6bp; gold +0.6%.
Rate-hike odds for November: 88% → 60-70%.