The August PCE data to be released at 8:30 tonight is the Fed’s last complete PCE report before its October 28 policy meeting—directly determining whether there will be a rate hike in October.
PCE reveals everything tonight! Whether the Fed hikes or doesn’t, it all comes down to this 🔥$ETH $BTC
First, here’s the expected picture. A Dow Jones survey shows overall PCE YoY at 3.7%, core PCE YoY at 3.3%. Both figures are exactly the same as July—no change at all. The month-over-month data is even more painful: overall MoM at 0.3%, core MoM at 0.3%, even faster than July’s 0.2%.
Translation: Inflation isn’t cooling—and month-over-month growth is even accelerating.
The Fed just raised rates this month for the first time in three years, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Out of 18 policymakers, 16 expect another hike before year-end. If tonight’s core MoM truly comes in at 0.4%, the yield on 10-year Treasuries could jump straight above 5.25%, the US dollar would strengthen, and gold and silver would get hit first.
The most surreal part is the consumer side: income is expected to rise MoM by 0.5%, while spending is expected to rise MoM by 0.8%. Consumers are basically saying “it’s expensive,” while still going on a spending spree—“people think it’s expensive, yet they’re still spending.”
And there’s a bonus: the BEA will revise historical data retroactively tonight, and July PCE YoY could be revised down by 0.2–0.3 percentage points. But Goldman has said: even if you polish the rearview mirror, it doesn’t help—you may see even uglier inflation in the next one or two months.
One-sentence summary: Core MoM of 0.3% is a pass; 0.4% detonates the market on the spot; 0.2% means Santa Claus arrived early. Which one are you betting on? See you in the comments below👇
#美国PCE #通胀 #美元稳定币 #Bitget热钱包被盗源于第三方安全系统漏洞 #QNT一周涨287%
PCE reveals everything tonight! Whether the Fed hikes or doesn’t, it all comes down to this 🔥$ETH $BTC
First, here’s the expected picture. A Dow Jones survey shows overall PCE YoY at 3.7%, core PCE YoY at 3.3%. Both figures are exactly the same as July—no change at all. The month-over-month data is even more painful: overall MoM at 0.3%, core MoM at 0.3%, even faster than July’s 0.2%.
Translation: Inflation isn’t cooling—and month-over-month growth is even accelerating.
The Fed just raised rates this month for the first time in three years, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Out of 18 policymakers, 16 expect another hike before year-end. If tonight’s core MoM truly comes in at 0.4%, the yield on 10-year Treasuries could jump straight above 5.25%, the US dollar would strengthen, and gold and silver would get hit first.
The most surreal part is the consumer side: income is expected to rise MoM by 0.5%, while spending is expected to rise MoM by 0.8%. Consumers are basically saying “it’s expensive,” while still going on a spending spree—“people think it’s expensive, yet they’re still spending.”
And there’s a bonus: the BEA will revise historical data retroactively tonight, and July PCE YoY could be revised down by 0.2–0.3 percentage points. But Goldman has said: even if you polish the rearview mirror, it doesn’t help—you may see even uglier inflation in the next one or two months.
One-sentence summary: Core MoM of 0.3% is a pass; 0.4% detonates the market on the spot; 0.2% means Santa Claus arrived early. Which one are you betting on? See you in the comments below👇
#美国PCE #通胀 #美元稳定币 #Bitget热钱包被盗源于第三方安全系统漏洞 #QNT一周涨287%
