Starry 9.30 evening gold market analysis
The Fed passed a full-round rate hike of 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot shows that there is likely one more rate hike within the year, pushing expectations for rate cuts back significantly to after 2027. This directly lifts U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index, greatly increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, which is a core bearish factor suppressing the gold price.
结合 the prior trend, since early September, the price of gold has been trading with a downward drift, falling steadily from above $4,550. It is currently in a technical rebound and repair phase within a bearish trend. Resistance is around the $4,350–$4,400 area. Key support is near $4,250; if it breaks, the outlook would turn to the $4,110–$4,190 range.
Short-term: sell (short).
The Fed’s hawkish stance is the dominant force right now. As long as the rate-hike expectations have not faded, gold’s rebound remains highly limited. Most institutions believe that Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to pressure precious metals, and gold may fall further.
Key takeaway: If you want to short in the short term, closely watch the $4,250 support. Once it breaks, follow the trend and look toward the $4,110–$4,190 area. If you want to go long, at least wait for gold to hold above $4,400 or for a clear bottom-reversal pattern to appear; otherwise, the risk of going against the trend is extremely high.$XAU #股票财报季
The Fed passed a full-round rate hike of 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot shows that there is likely one more rate hike within the year, pushing expectations for rate cuts back significantly to after 2027. This directly lifts U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index, greatly increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, which is a core bearish factor suppressing the gold price.
结合 the prior trend, since early September, the price of gold has been trading with a downward drift, falling steadily from above $4,550. It is currently in a technical rebound and repair phase within a bearish trend. Resistance is around the $4,350–$4,400 area. Key support is near $4,250; if it breaks, the outlook would turn to the $4,110–$4,190 range.
Short-term: sell (short).
The Fed’s hawkish stance is the dominant force right now. As long as the rate-hike expectations have not faded, gold’s rebound remains highly limited. Most institutions believe that Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to pressure precious metals, and gold may fall further.
Key takeaway: If you want to short in the short term, closely watch the $4,250 support. Once it breaks, follow the trend and look toward the $4,110–$4,190 area. If you want to go long, at least wait for gold to hold above $4,400 or for a clear bottom-reversal pattern to appear; otherwise, the risk of going against the trend is extremely high.$XAU #股票财报季
