The market cycle isn’t fixed “four seasons”
Recovery, expansion, overheating, and contraction are a framework for understanding market behavior—not a precise buy/sell clock. Liquidity, leverage, and sentiment can reinforce one another, and they can also reverse suddenly.
Halving changes the supply mechanism, but it doesn’t guarantee that the coin price will rise according to historical scripts. Just because it rose in the past doesn’t mean it will rise again next time.
To judge the environment, you should observe trading activity, financing costs, and risk appetite in parallel—and acknowledge that signals may lag. More practical than trying to guess cycle tops and bottoms is to set position and rebalancing rules in advance.
#Market Cycle
Recovery, expansion, overheating, and contraction are a framework for understanding market behavior—not a precise buy/sell clock. Liquidity, leverage, and sentiment can reinforce one another, and they can also reverse suddenly.
Halving changes the supply mechanism, but it doesn’t guarantee that the coin price will rise according to historical scripts. Just because it rose in the past doesn’t mean it will rise again next time.
To judge the environment, you should observe trading activity, financing costs, and risk appetite in parallel—and acknowledge that signals may lag. More practical than trying to guess cycle tops and bottoms is to set position and rebalancing rules in advance.
#Market Cycle