Let’s make an unconventional judgment today: at this point in the BTC and ETH market, whether prices go up or down isn’t the key—the hunt is just starting.
First, my stance: I think BTC will surge first to break upward and “raise the flag,” while ETH will be smashed down first to pick up the liquidity. Don’t think that’s contradictory—this is exactly the kind of split-and-target play that the main players love.
For BTC, it’s at $83,631. Large holders are 66% net long and are slowly adding, but OI is cutting across the board. This isn’t “adding because we’re bullish.” It’s more like they’re holding bullets and waiting for the right spot. Above, at $85,304, there’s a whole wall of short stop-losses—then the next layer at $87,863. The daily Hurst is already 0.69, and the trend structure is basically there; what’s missing is just a confirmation push for a squeeze. So my script is: first lure the downside, then force the squeeze. That $85,304 wall is very likely to get hit—once it’s hit, we’ll see the truth.
Now ETH is uglier for longs: $2,690. Retail is 74% long, funding rates show longs paying, and OI is still withdrawing. This is textbook crowded long positioning. The main players’ favorite prey is exactly this kind—without giving you a deep pullback, they’ll first trap you down into the $2,636 support pool.
One-sentence summary of the direction: the structure is biased bullish, but the tempo is geared toward hunting.
Wait until OI shifts from retreat back to adding—then the trend leg can truly begin. Before that, everything is a trap.
That’s how I’m laying it out:
Do you think BTC will first surge into the $85,304 stop-loss wall, or will ETH first break down into the $2,636 support pool? Vote in the comments—live stream tomorrow night to reveal the answer.
Follow me: live streams every night at 21:00 + SMC teaching
🌿 Zhao surname | Not financial advice
First, my stance: I think BTC will surge first to break upward and “raise the flag,” while ETH will be smashed down first to pick up the liquidity. Don’t think that’s contradictory—this is exactly the kind of split-and-target play that the main players love.
For BTC, it’s at $83,631. Large holders are 66% net long and are slowly adding, but OI is cutting across the board. This isn’t “adding because we’re bullish.” It’s more like they’re holding bullets and waiting for the right spot. Above, at $85,304, there’s a whole wall of short stop-losses—then the next layer at $87,863. The daily Hurst is already 0.69, and the trend structure is basically there; what’s missing is just a confirmation push for a squeeze. So my script is: first lure the downside, then force the squeeze. That $85,304 wall is very likely to get hit—once it’s hit, we’ll see the truth.
Now ETH is uglier for longs: $2,690. Retail is 74% long, funding rates show longs paying, and OI is still withdrawing. This is textbook crowded long positioning. The main players’ favorite prey is exactly this kind—without giving you a deep pullback, they’ll first trap you down into the $2,636 support pool.
One-sentence summary of the direction: the structure is biased bullish, but the tempo is geared toward hunting.
Wait until OI shifts from retreat back to adding—then the trend leg can truly begin. Before that, everything is a trap.
That’s how I’m laying it out:
Do you think BTC will first surge into the $85,304 stop-loss wall, or will ETH first break down into the $2,636 support pool? Vote in the comments—live stream tomorrow night to reveal the answer.
Follow me: live streams every night at 21:00 + SMC teaching
🌿 Zhao surname | Not financial advice