This fall in oil prices is kind of interesting. $CL is now at 89.56, and in the last 24 hours it’s been hammered by nearly 4%. And yet CNBC is still saying something like "Oil prices rise because Trump denies waivers for sanctions against Iran." Rise my ass😅
In plain terms, it’s Qatar acting as a mediator in the middle. The market thought talks were going to happen, so people ran first. Trump then came out to douse the idea, saying there’s no benefit for Iran—but the price simply didn’t care. What does that tell us? That what’s currently driving $CL is expectations of geopolitical easing, not talk.
If you really want to trade, keep an eye on the 89 level. If it breaks down and then holds below it, the “talks” logic gets confirmed, and the next target is 85. If talks on Qatar’s side fall apart, or if something else happens around the Strait of Hormuz, then 89 becomes a fake-out—turn around and you can potentially retest 93.
$XAU is steady though. 4199 is still edging higher, up +1.31%. The old script of “buy gold in troubled times” hasn’t changed. If talks don’t happen, it rises; if talks do happen, it still doesn’t really fall. So I’d rather stay put with $XAU . For message-driven instruments like $CL , getting in is basically betting on the news headline—exhausting.
Unless $CL truly breaks below 89, I’m just watching.
#gold
In plain terms, it’s Qatar acting as a mediator in the middle. The market thought talks were going to happen, so people ran first. Trump then came out to douse the idea, saying there’s no benefit for Iran—but the price simply didn’t care. What does that tell us? That what’s currently driving $CL is expectations of geopolitical easing, not talk.
If you really want to trade, keep an eye on the 89 level. If it breaks down and then holds below it, the “talks” logic gets confirmed, and the next target is 85. If talks on Qatar’s side fall apart, or if something else happens around the Strait of Hormuz, then 89 becomes a fake-out—turn around and you can potentially retest 93.
$XAU is steady though. 4199 is still edging higher, up +1.31%. The old script of “buy gold in troubled times” hasn’t changed. If talks don’t happen, it rises; if talks do happen, it still doesn’t really fall. So I’d rather stay put with $XAU . For message-driven instruments like $CL , getting in is basically betting on the news headline—exhausting.
Unless $CL truly breaks below 89, I’m just watching.
#gold
