$BTC 's $82,500 test: Wintermute says oil may matter more than the chart Bitcoin just closed a week above its 50-week moving average for the first time since early November. According to Wintermute, the real test comes next. The key level is $82,500, which capped BTC's previous range for several weeks. Wintermute expects price to retest it several times: 🔹 Holding above it would give the breakout a solid base 🔹 A close below it would put the breakout in doubt Other signals from their note: 🔹 $BTC dominance could keep rising over the next few weeks 🔹 Over 80% of tokens are in the green. In more than 80% of past cases, readings this high were followed by chop or a pullback, although early in a cycle the rally has often continued 🔹 Demand is growing for low-delta calls and year-end call spreads on BTC and ETH. That's bullish positioning, but Wintermute doesn't treat a new ATH as a clear target The biggest risk is macro. Brent is near $103, and the Strait of Hormuz is still carrying only part of its pre-war volume. If oil stays around $100 or higher, the market will keep pricing in another rate hike in October, with 10-year US Treasury yields already above 5%. Until BTC moves higher and fresh capital arrives, Wintermute sees mostly selective opportunities in altcoins. Is bitcoin trading its own chart now or oil's? #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#