😂 Everyone, get ready psychologically—Micron (MU) tonight may really explode. And with SNDK along for the ride, we’re likely about to see another big行情 (market move).
1. Wall Street is holding its breath. Micron is about to undergo a qualitative shift. Tonight, after the close—meaning in China it will be released early tomorrow morning—Micron will publish its earnings report. Whether the next month goes up or down depends entirely on what happens tonight. So the question is: is this bullish?
2. Let’s go straight to the data. Right now, the market’s expectations for the earnings report are roughly like this: revenue around $51 billion, up 350% year over year. EPS around $31.5, up 940% year over year. The company’s own guidance is $50 billion +/- $1 billion. Gross margin: 86%.
3. The most impressive part is that 86%—I looked at it twice. If you sell memory chips, getting a gross margin of 86% is extremely outrageous. Analyst Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson is actively bullish. He reiterated a $2,000 target price, which is nearly double the current price.
4. His logic is basically one line: the larger the memory, the stronger the model, and the faster the inference. He also specifically mentioned Meta’s Muse app going viral, saying, “A few weeks ago we were still worried that Meta demand would decline, but now it seems unlikely.”
5. Xiao Qin took a look: right now, Wall Street is generally bullish, because positions determine the mindset. Since they hold Micron, of course they’ll be bullish. And personally, I think the probability of an upside move is pretty good—Micron got hammered badly before. This time, the management also has to put out an eye-catching earnings report, right?
6. But we also can’t ignore the other side. We should look at what the bears are saying too. Michael Burry, the big short, is betting against Micron. He bought put options expiring June 2027 with a strike price of about $500, betting that Micron will be cut roughly in half from around $1,050. His reasoning: China is expanding production, so prices have to fall.
7. Xiao Qin personally thinks both sides are right. A short-term earnings upside might lift things a bit, but in the long run, as China’s memory industry rises, Micron’s profits will definitely decline somewhat. Everyone, make your own plans—tonight at dawn, the show is about to begin!
1. Wall Street is holding its breath. Micron is about to undergo a qualitative shift. Tonight, after the close—meaning in China it will be released early tomorrow morning—Micron will publish its earnings report. Whether the next month goes up or down depends entirely on what happens tonight. So the question is: is this bullish?
2. Let’s go straight to the data. Right now, the market’s expectations for the earnings report are roughly like this: revenue around $51 billion, up 350% year over year. EPS around $31.5, up 940% year over year. The company’s own guidance is $50 billion +/- $1 billion. Gross margin: 86%.
3. The most impressive part is that 86%—I looked at it twice. If you sell memory chips, getting a gross margin of 86% is extremely outrageous. Analyst Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson is actively bullish. He reiterated a $2,000 target price, which is nearly double the current price.
4. His logic is basically one line: the larger the memory, the stronger the model, and the faster the inference. He also specifically mentioned Meta’s Muse app going viral, saying, “A few weeks ago we were still worried that Meta demand would decline, but now it seems unlikely.”
5. Xiao Qin took a look: right now, Wall Street is generally bullish, because positions determine the mindset. Since they hold Micron, of course they’ll be bullish. And personally, I think the probability of an upside move is pretty good—Micron got hammered badly before. This time, the management also has to put out an eye-catching earnings report, right?
6. But we also can’t ignore the other side. We should look at what the bears are saying too. Michael Burry, the big short, is betting against Micron. He bought put options expiring June 2027 with a strike price of about $500, betting that Micron will be cut roughly in half from around $1,050. His reasoning: China is expanding production, so prices have to fall.
7. Xiao Qin personally thinks both sides are right. A short-term earnings upside might lift things a bit, but in the long run, as China’s memory industry rises, Micron’s profits will definitely decline somewhat. Everyone, make your own plans—tonight at dawn, the show is about to begin!
