#全球宏观分析
Hold positions or hold cash over the holiday
First, look at the overseas situation. The U.S. dollar index is at a high level around 101, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 5.28%, and the Treasury yield is higher than the implied return of U.S. equities. So the overseas risks are relatively bigger.
Also, oil prices have fallen sharply today. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields are still rising abnormally. This suggests the pricing is not only about inflation, but also about an acceleration in the U.S. economy being priced in (PMI beating expectations). In plain terms, the economy is too hot, pushing up the cost of capital.
- U.S. stocks
Previously, leverage was reduced and some tech was rotated into healthcare. Now it’s basically about continuing to hold shares and wait for a pullback. Next, there will be a run of economic data:
PCE, the big non-farm payrolls, and PMI could all beat expectations, which would be a
small test for U.S. stocks. The 60-day moving average is at around 2.62 million (roughly 26,200). If the market can reach it next week, watch that level; if it can’t, then just keep waiting.
- U.S. Treasuries
The 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to fall easily. From today’s abnormal price action, you can see there is no plan to “bottom pick” Treasuries in the short term. We need to wait for a U.S.-Iran agreement.
- Gold
Last week, when it broke below 4300, I executed a small add-on. But when it later broke below 4270, I directly cleared the added portion. Ahead of the holiday, I maintained long-term positioning; short-term allocations are in a no-position state.
During the National Day holiday period, there wasn’t much buying in the A-P (Asian) session. The trend will mainly depend on overseas oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. I don’t know what unexpected situations might happen, so reducing risk is a relatively reassuring choice.
- A-shares
Today’s trading volume shrank while price stabilized, suggesting an end to the downtrend. After the close, several support policies were released—though the力度 isn’t very strong. In the real estate sector, the scale is roughly 30 billion (RMB). With 20x leverage, that could potentially support about 600 billion in housing loans, offsetting the earlier policy on existing-home sales. The actual effect remains to be observed. In the short term, there will be some give-and-take between sectors like real estate and consumer demand. If you want to participate, just make sure you take profits in time.
Also, there is an increase in “70001\mathrm(ZPSL)”. It targets micro and small enterprises, agriculture, the construction of “six networks,” and technology loans—aimed at turning around investment sentiment. The strength is supportive; having it is better than not having it. With an “enough to feed the pot” style of market, I hope we see a bounce after the holiday (whether institutions trade ahead of time is still something to observe). Whether the rebound can reach 3900 depends on institutions’ willingness to go long. Under the suppression of high overseas interest rates, it isn’t a full-blown bull market.
For A-shares, with a medium allocation, there’s no need to reduce exposure anymore. If you’re lightly positioned, you can participate in a consumer-demand rebound, but watch the speed of rotation—don’t add too aggressively.
Big picture: for amounts below 80,000, start a regular investment plan (DCA). Only add, never reduce.
Hold positions or hold cash over the holiday
First, look at the overseas situation. The U.S. dollar index is at a high level around 101, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 5.28%, and the Treasury yield is higher than the implied return of U.S. equities. So the overseas risks are relatively bigger.
Also, oil prices have fallen sharply today. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields are still rising abnormally. This suggests the pricing is not only about inflation, but also about an acceleration in the U.S. economy being priced in (PMI beating expectations). In plain terms, the economy is too hot, pushing up the cost of capital.
- U.S. stocks
Previously, leverage was reduced and some tech was rotated into healthcare. Now it’s basically about continuing to hold shares and wait for a pullback. Next, there will be a run of economic data:
PCE, the big non-farm payrolls, and PMI could all beat expectations, which would be a
small test for U.S. stocks. The 60-day moving average is at around 2.62 million (roughly 26,200). If the market can reach it next week, watch that level; if it can’t, then just keep waiting.
- U.S. Treasuries
The 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to fall easily. From today’s abnormal price action, you can see there is no plan to “bottom pick” Treasuries in the short term. We need to wait for a U.S.-Iran agreement.
- Gold
Last week, when it broke below 4300, I executed a small add-on. But when it later broke below 4270, I directly cleared the added portion. Ahead of the holiday, I maintained long-term positioning; short-term allocations are in a no-position state.
During the National Day holiday period, there wasn’t much buying in the A-P (Asian) session. The trend will mainly depend on overseas oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. I don’t know what unexpected situations might happen, so reducing risk is a relatively reassuring choice.
- A-shares
Today’s trading volume shrank while price stabilized, suggesting an end to the downtrend. After the close, several support policies were released—though the力度 isn’t very strong. In the real estate sector, the scale is roughly 30 billion (RMB). With 20x leverage, that could potentially support about 600 billion in housing loans, offsetting the earlier policy on existing-home sales. The actual effect remains to be observed. In the short term, there will be some give-and-take between sectors like real estate and consumer demand. If you want to participate, just make sure you take profits in time.
Also, there is an increase in “70001\mathrm(ZPSL)”. It targets micro and small enterprises, agriculture, the construction of “six networks,” and technology loans—aimed at turning around investment sentiment. The strength is supportive; having it is better than not having it. With an “enough to feed the pot” style of market, I hope we see a bounce after the holiday (whether institutions trade ahead of time is still something to observe). Whether the rebound can reach 3900 depends on institutions’ willingness to go long. Under the suppression of high overseas interest rates, it isn’t a full-blown bull market.
For A-shares, with a medium allocation, there’s no need to reduce exposure anymore. If you’re lightly positioned, you can participate in a consumer-demand rebound, but watch the speed of rotation—don’t add too aggressively.
Big picture: for amounts below 80,000, start a regular investment plan (DCA). Only add, never reduce.