Something big is coming this evening! Will $BTC hold up?
At 20:30 local US time tonight, PCE data for August will be released. The probability of a rate hike in October has fallen from more than 60% a few days ago to roughly 50/50 right now.
What I’m most interested in is the core PCE on a month-over-month basis. Market expectations are around 0.3%, versus 0.2% last month. The difference is only 0.1 percentage point, but in the current market conditions, that’s enough to spark a full-night debate between bulls and bears.
If the figure comes in below expectations, pressure for a rate hike could ease, and BTC will be able to catch its breath.
If it’s above expectations, US bond yields will likely start rising again, and the crypto market will probably begin to wobble once more.
In the first few minutes after the data release, it’s especially easy to observe sharp spikes up and down, so I wouldn’t use the first candle to forecast the rest of the evening.
Don’t forget that on Friday, employment data outside the agricultural sector will be released. Even if BTC rises today, you’ll still need to see whether it can hold on to the gains.
At 20:30 local US time tonight, PCE data for August will be released. The probability of a rate hike in October has fallen from more than 60% a few days ago to roughly 50/50 right now.
What I’m most interested in is the core PCE on a month-over-month basis. Market expectations are around 0.3%, versus 0.2% last month. The difference is only 0.1 percentage point, but in the current market conditions, that’s enough to spark a full-night debate between bulls and bears.
If the figure comes in below expectations, pressure for a rate hike could ease, and BTC will be able to catch its breath.
If it’s above expectations, US bond yields will likely start rising again, and the crypto market will probably begin to wobble once more.
In the first few minutes after the data release, it’s especially easy to observe sharp spikes up and down, so I wouldn’t use the first candle to forecast the rest of the evening.
Don’t forget that on Friday, employment data outside the agricultural sector will be released. Even if BTC rises today, you’ll still need to see whether it can hold on to the gains.