【SMC Lesson 6: A record-high volume is retail getting filled; the main force is selling】
Many people treat a record-high with massive volume as the start of a major upswing. Last night, ETH gave you a textbook lesson.
Three divergence signals:
1️⃣ Record-high volume makes a new high + closing price stuck near the lower edge—massive volume, long upper wick, and a bearish close; the entire batch of open positions above gets distributed
2️⃣ After the new high, volume keeps shrinking and the price keeps dropping in bearishness—no one is taking the bids anymore; the main force has already left
3️⃣ At the end of the decline, bearish candles with volume spikes and wick penetrations, then price quickly recovers—this is the main force flipping and taking the panic sell-off; often this is when the true bottom forms
Example (data verifiable):
ETH on 9-29 at around 20:00 on the 4h: volume 99,895 ETH, the largest among the last 8 candles. It touched 2,748.6 and closed at 2,674, with a long upper wick and a bearish close. After that, volume contracted along the way: 30k → 29k → 26k. The latest candle’s volume is just over half, around 16k. Price continued to slip bearish to 2,665, which is 83 points below the high. Anyone chasing for longs got left holding the bag at the top.
Reverse corroboration:
This afternoon from 14:00 to 14:15, BTC on the 15-minute chart: volume jumped from 123 to 157, surging sharply downward and breaking 83,114 to 83,058—then it immediately recovered and closed above 83,141. Same kind of high-volume wick-spike pattern, but read in the opposite direction: the main force is absorbing panic, not dumping.
Actionable takeaway:
① See a record-high volume + weak close: don’t chase longs; trim positions if you’re already long
② High-level price decline on shrinking volume: don’t try to bottom-fish; wait for a volume-spike wick + recovery before considering longs
③ The direction of volume is always more reliable than the news: with a new high + volume divergence, trust the chart first
Follow me—live stream every night at 21:00 for SMC teaching
🌿 Zhao surname, not a recommendation
Many people treat a record-high with massive volume as the start of a major upswing. Last night, ETH gave you a textbook lesson.
Three divergence signals:
1️⃣ Record-high volume makes a new high + closing price stuck near the lower edge—massive volume, long upper wick, and a bearish close; the entire batch of open positions above gets distributed
2️⃣ After the new high, volume keeps shrinking and the price keeps dropping in bearishness—no one is taking the bids anymore; the main force has already left
3️⃣ At the end of the decline, bearish candles with volume spikes and wick penetrations, then price quickly recovers—this is the main force flipping and taking the panic sell-off; often this is when the true bottom forms
Example (data verifiable):
ETH on 9-29 at around 20:00 on the 4h: volume 99,895 ETH, the largest among the last 8 candles. It touched 2,748.6 and closed at 2,674, with a long upper wick and a bearish close. After that, volume contracted along the way: 30k → 29k → 26k. The latest candle’s volume is just over half, around 16k. Price continued to slip bearish to 2,665, which is 83 points below the high. Anyone chasing for longs got left holding the bag at the top.
Reverse corroboration:
This afternoon from 14:00 to 14:15, BTC on the 15-minute chart: volume jumped from 123 to 157, surging sharply downward and breaking 83,114 to 83,058—then it immediately recovered and closed above 83,141. Same kind of high-volume wick-spike pattern, but read in the opposite direction: the main force is absorbing panic, not dumping.
Actionable takeaway:
① See a record-high volume + weak close: don’t chase longs; trim positions if you’re already long
② High-level price decline on shrinking volume: don’t try to bottom-fish; wait for a volume-spike wick + recovery before considering longs
③ The direction of volume is always more reliable than the news: with a new high + volume divergence, trust the chart first
Follow me—live stream every night at 21:00 for SMC teaching
🌿 Zhao surname, not a recommendation