$ALICE This drop is pretty decisive—on the 15m chart it’s directly -2.41%, volume is up to 4.25x. No need to guess: someone is dumping.
But what’s interesting is that OI is dropping in sync too. 15m -1.18%, 1h -2.23%, nominal down by more than $260k. This doesn’t look like brand-new short positions coming in; it looks more like longs deleveraging. Price is falling, open interest is shrinking, the aggressive buy/sell ratio is only 0.52, and the funding rate is still elevated. With this combination, the most likely scenario is that the previous batch of high-leverage long positions couldn’t take it and was forced to stop out or actively cut.
In the 95.8th percentile of abnormal activity, ranking 6th across the whole pool, which suggests this isn’t just ALICE randomly twitching—this signal is relatively high on the list in the broader market. The closing price has already broken below the lower band of the past 20-plus 5m candles, and the recent range has effectively been smashed through.
Next, we’ll see whether someone steps in. If OI continues to decline and the price can’t rebound, then it’s likely to be a sweep/clearing move—washed out first, then choose a direction afterward. But if it stabilizes on lower volume, this area could actually be a good spot to watch for a short-term setup.
Anyway, there’s no rush to act right now. Let it finish this leg on its own first.
But what’s interesting is that OI is dropping in sync too. 15m -1.18%, 1h -2.23%, nominal down by more than $260k. This doesn’t look like brand-new short positions coming in; it looks more like longs deleveraging. Price is falling, open interest is shrinking, the aggressive buy/sell ratio is only 0.52, and the funding rate is still elevated. With this combination, the most likely scenario is that the previous batch of high-leverage long positions couldn’t take it and was forced to stop out or actively cut.
In the 95.8th percentile of abnormal activity, ranking 6th across the whole pool, which suggests this isn’t just ALICE randomly twitching—this signal is relatively high on the list in the broader market. The closing price has already broken below the lower band of the past 20-plus 5m candles, and the recent range has effectively been smashed through.
Next, we’ll see whether someone steps in. If OI continues to decline and the price can’t rebound, then it’s likely to be a sweep/clearing move—washed out first, then choose a direction afterward. But if it stabilizes on lower volume, this area could actually be a good spot to watch for a short-term setup.
Anyway, there’s no rush to act right now. Let it finish this leg on its own first.