Macro Coverage – 30 September 2026Global economy shows stabilization, even though it is still shrouded in geopolitical uncertainty (especially the Middle East), which is pushing energy prices up. Brent crude briefly touched high levels and is still trading around USD100 per barrel.
spglobal.com
Global growth projections for 2026 are generally in the range of 2.6–3.0%, supported by strong AI investment (especially in the US) as well as consumption resilience and investment in several developed countries. However, fiscal space is tightening and cost-of-living pressures (food, electricity, energy) remain high. Global inflation is expected to rise temporarily due to commodity prices before easing in 2027.
weforum.org
United StatesThe Fed raised interest rates by 25 bps at the September meeting to 3.75–4.00% (the first hike in a long time) and signaled the possibility of further increases. Residual GDP growth is strong (~2%), driven by consumption and AI-related investment. PCE inflation remains above target (~3.7%), while unemployment is steady at around 4.1%.
interactivebrokers.com
EuropeThe ECB also raised interest rates by 25 bps (deposit facility to 2.50%). Euro area growth is projected to be low (~0.9–1.0% in 2026), while inflation rises due to energy (headline ~3.3% in August).
spglobal.com
Global growth projections for 2026 are generally in the range of 2.6–3.0%, supported by strong AI investment (especially in the US) as well as consumption resilience and investment in several developed countries. However, fiscal space is tightening and cost-of-living pressures (food, electricity, energy) remain high. Global inflation is expected to rise temporarily due to commodity prices before easing in 2027.
weforum.org
United StatesThe Fed raised interest rates by 25 bps at the September meeting to 3.75–4.00% (the first hike in a long time) and signaled the possibility of further increases. Residual GDP growth is strong (~2%), driven by consumption and AI-related investment. PCE inflation remains above target (~3.7%), while unemployment is steady at around 4.1%.
interactivebrokers.com
EuropeThe ECB also raised interest rates by 25 bps (deposit facility to 2.50%). Euro area growth is projected to be low (~0.9–1.0% in 2026), while inflation rises due to energy (headline ~3.3% in August).