Tonight, the whole market is waiting for the U.S. inflation data. The “first signal” that could truly loosen is already showing up on-chain..
🔄 进群聊仓位
Bitcoin, after a run to an eight-month high near $87,400, has pulled back to around $83,300.. At the same time, CryptoQuant’s bull market score has climbed to 90, out of 100.. This score jumped after Bitcoin broke above the 365-day moving average last week. By that firm’s definition, it’s basically a stamp of “bull market.”..
Most people see it as: “It’s confirmed—go ahead and chase.”..
But within the same report, several sets of numbers are moving in the opposite direction.. Spot demand over the past 30 days shrank by about 170,000 BTC.. The incremental demand for speculative derivatives fell from roughly 164,000 BTC on September 14 to just 16,000 BTC on September 29—down 90% in 15 days..
Buyers are also letting go.. The cohort that entered recently has an average unrealized profit of 33%, the widest spread since December 2024.. On September 22, there were 25,700 BTC net taken as daily profit—the biggest day of the year.. The thicker the floating gains, the less reason people need to sell..
The real divergence is on altcoins.. Over the past 7 days, there have been 76,000 altcoin deposits into exchanges, coming from 51,000 different addresses— the busiest week since October 2025.. Once a coin lands on an exchange, it can be sold within seconds, and any bounce above gets weighed down by that inventory..
So is this rotation, or retreat.. Both readings can be defended.. The optimistic side would say SOL and ZEC are up nearly 2% each—money is rotating from BTC into higher-beta targets, and the rotation is only just beginning.. The cautious side would say: when deposit addresses suddenly spread out, it’s chips looking for an exit, not a new destination..
What I care about more is the nature of this kind of scoring: it’s inherently backward-looking.. It’s confirming “this was a bull market,” not “this can still rise further.” The higher the score, the easier it’s read as a buy signal—yet in practice it suggests this rally has already burned through much of the fuel it needed.
So it’s that inflation print tonight that’s the switch.. If it’s higher, the U.S. dollar strengthens and risk assets come under pressure; if it’s lower, then it’s basically a refill for people chasing at the top..
If spot demand keeps shrinking and the derivatives increment keeps stalling, then what really matters won’t be whether BTC can tap 87,000 again, but whether those traders who just went into 33% floating profit are still willing to hold another week.
🔄 进群聊仓位
Bitcoin, after a run to an eight-month high near $87,400, has pulled back to around $83,300.. At the same time, CryptoQuant’s bull market score has climbed to 90, out of 100.. This score jumped after Bitcoin broke above the 365-day moving average last week. By that firm’s definition, it’s basically a stamp of “bull market.”..
Most people see it as: “It’s confirmed—go ahead and chase.”..
But within the same report, several sets of numbers are moving in the opposite direction.. Spot demand over the past 30 days shrank by about 170,000 BTC.. The incremental demand for speculative derivatives fell from roughly 164,000 BTC on September 14 to just 16,000 BTC on September 29—down 90% in 15 days..
Buyers are also letting go.. The cohort that entered recently has an average unrealized profit of 33%, the widest spread since December 2024.. On September 22, there were 25,700 BTC net taken as daily profit—the biggest day of the year.. The thicker the floating gains, the less reason people need to sell..
The real divergence is on altcoins.. Over the past 7 days, there have been 76,000 altcoin deposits into exchanges, coming from 51,000 different addresses— the busiest week since October 2025.. Once a coin lands on an exchange, it can be sold within seconds, and any bounce above gets weighed down by that inventory..
So is this rotation, or retreat.. Both readings can be defended.. The optimistic side would say SOL and ZEC are up nearly 2% each—money is rotating from BTC into higher-beta targets, and the rotation is only just beginning.. The cautious side would say: when deposit addresses suddenly spread out, it’s chips looking for an exit, not a new destination..
What I care about more is the nature of this kind of scoring: it’s inherently backward-looking.. It’s confirming “this was a bull market,” not “this can still rise further.” The higher the score, the easier it’s read as a buy signal—yet in practice it suggests this rally has already burned through much of the fuel it needed.
So it’s that inflation print tonight that’s the switch.. If it’s higher, the U.S. dollar strengthens and risk assets come under pressure; if it’s lower, then it’s basically a refill for people chasing at the top..
If spot demand keeps shrinking and the derivatives increment keeps stalling, then what really matters won’t be whether BTC can tap 87,000 again, but whether those traders who just went into 33% floating profit are still willing to hold another week.
