Bitcoin has re-entered a bull market, but profits held by short-term traders are also expanding rapidly.
A new report from CryptoQuant on the 29th notes that Bitcoin’s weekly close reclaimed the 365-day moving average line. According to the company’s model, this confirms a new bull market phase; its Bitcoin Bull Score Index rose to 90/100, placing it in the “extremely bullish” range.
At the same time, the on-chain unrealized profit rate of short-term traders has climbed to 33%, the highest in about 21 months since December 2024. On September 22, the market also realized profits on roughly 25,700 BTC—its largest single-day profit-taking amount this year.
In other words: the bull-market structure is still intact, but the short-term supply of coins has started to get expensive.
Paper profits at 33%; short-term traders start to have stronger incentives to sell
CryptoQuant’s “trader unrealized profit rate” measures how much profit this recent, active cohort of short-term holders has accumulated on their balance sheets. The latest reading is 33%, meaning this batch of coins has averaged substantial unrealized gains.
CryptoQuant’s research director Julio Moreno notes that historically, when short-term traders’ profit rates rise to a range similar to this, holders usually have more incentive to convert paper gains into realized profits.
This doesn’t necessarily mean BTC will drop immediately, but it increases the chance that with each additional upward move in price, more holders will be willing to sell. Therefore, 33% is more of a warning that “short-term profit-taking pressure is rising,” not a signal that the bull market is over.
Cash out 25,700 BTC in one day, setting this year’s high
This profit-taking is no longer just a paper-number issue. CryptoQuant points out that on September 22, Bitcoin holders realized about 25,700 BTC in profit in a single day—the highest since 2026 to date. Roughly calculated at the time using BTC’s price of about $85,000–$87,000, the market value of the BTC associated with these realized profits exceeds $2.1 billion.
However, this still indicates that a significant scale of holders is taking profit from this rally. CryptoQuant notes that similar profit-taking peaks often appear near local tops after strong upward moves.
What really needs to be worried about is this: more people are selling, but new buying demand is weakening.
Pure profit-taking isn’t the scary part. What really matters is whether the market has enough new demand to absorb this batch of sell orders.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s latest data is becoming more conservative on this point. The report shows that Bitcoin’s “apparent spot demand” has been steadily contracting over the past 30 days, accumulating a decline of about 170,000 BTC.
As for the futures market, CryptoQuant points out that one of the key forces driving this round of upside is speculative futures demand; however, the growth in this demand has rapidly fallen from about 164,000 BTC on September 14 to only 16,000 BTC on September 29. In other words, it’s not just spot demand contracting—the pace at which new leveraged long positions are being added in the derivatives market has also clearly slowed down.
Moreno therefore says plainly that without new demand, it’s difficult for the uptrend to keep extending.
BTC is currently around $83,500—down from the $87,400 peak
The latest market action is also starting to reflect this cooling momentum. CoinMarketCap’s real-time data on September 30 shows BTC around $83,500–$83,600, roughly flat over the past 24 hours, and still up about 6% over the past 30 days. However, during this rally BTC briefly rose to about $87,400—an eight-month high—and is now down roughly 4%–5% from the highs.
This aligns with CryptoQuant’s assessment: the bull market is still on, but the rally momentum is losing speed.
Profit-taking pressure is not only showing up in BTC. CryptoQuant notes that the number of transactions flowing into exchanges over the past 7 days for altcoins has risen to 76,000, the highest since October 17, 2025. In the same period, the number of addresses depositing altcoins into exchanges rose to about 51,000, also reaching the highest level in nearly a year. CryptoQuant says this prior high on October 17, 2025 appeared about 11 days after BTC’s previous all-time high in the prior cycle.
Exchange inflows don’t necessarily mean immediate selling, but they usually indicate that the asset is closer to market liquidity—so they’re regarded as a potential sell-pressure indicator. As profit-taking increases for BTC, altcoin holders also start moving coins to exchanges. This pushes short-term supply pressure across the overall crypto market higher at the same time.
CryptoQuant: $80,000 is the first important line of defense in the bull market
If BTC experiences a pullback, CryptoQuant believes the first important support is around $80,000—the 365-day moving average. Below that is $71,000—the 200-day moving average. And further down is $67,000—the realized price on-chain for traders.
Moreno believes that as long as these medium- and long-term supports aren’t structurally broken, even if BTC undergoes a deeper pullback, it’s more suitable to be seen as healthy consolidation within a new bull market rather than the bear market restarting.
Short-term profitability conditions are on the hot side, but the overall bull-market structure has not been broken. Data supporting the bull market includes:
BTC has regained the 365-day moving average
CryptoQuant Bull Score reaches 90/100
Long-term holders have returned to a clearly profitable range
CryptoQuant’s latest data also shows that the adjusted MVRV of long-term holders holding between 6 months and 10 years has recovered to around 1.35. As of September 27, BTC was around $84,500, while the group’s average cost was about $62,700, implying overall paper gains of roughly 35%.
But short-term risks are equally clear:
Trader unrealized profit rate: 33%, highest in 21 months
Realized profit in a single day: 25,700 BTC, highest in 2026
Spot demand contracts by about 170,000 BTC over 30 days
New futures demand plunges from 164,000 BTC to 16,000 BTC
Altcoin exchange inflow transaction count rises to near a one-year high
The bull market hasn’t ended, but the phase of “easy rallies” is cooling down. What really needs to be watched next isn’t how much paper profit the market still has, but whether, whenever BTC pulls back, there is still enough new demand to absorb this profit-taking supply. If BTC can hold around $80,000 while profit-taking increases, it suggests that the demand structure for a new bull market is still healthy. Conversely, if spot demand keeps shrinking, futures buying keeps cooling off, and BTC breaks below the 365-day moving average, this consolidation that began around $87,400 could expand further.
The bull market is still here, but traders have already made enough money. The market is now entering a phase that requires real buying demand to keep pushing higher.
"Is the Bitcoin bull market still going, but the short-term market is overheating? Traders’ paper profits are up 33%, setting a 21-month high, with 25,700 BTC cashed out in a single day"—This article was first published on (Blockman).