【Asia Pacific Midday: Oil is down—why isn’t $BTC moving up?】
Last night’s market action was quite interesting: Middle East crude exports have returned to the highest level since the war began, the Hormuz blockade has basically been torn open, and WTI dumped 4.8% in one go to around $88. Trump even threw in another remark saying oil prices will collapse. But more than half of U.S. stocks slipped below the 200-day moving average—what the market is really worried about is Wednesday’s PCE. Williams signaled that there may still need to be another rate hike this year, and the probability of a rate hike in October is still hanging around 50%.
$BTC stayed sideways at 83K the whole time—neither could it fall further nor rally. My take is that the bearish effect from the fade in the war premium is offsetting the safe-haven buying pressure; the direction will likely be determined by the PCE.
Watch two points: Bitwise has launched the U.S.’s first spot ETF with staking rewards, $NEAR , and the ETF narrative is still spreading further into copycats. Cboe and S&P Dow Jones are also studying tokenized options—there’s another story to be told for the RWA track. As for ZEC, it’s dropped 12% over two days; the sentiment-driven run in privacy coins is basically cooling off.
In China, the central bank cut PSL by 25bp and added another RMB 200 billion in technology relending—easing is plainly on the table, and it’s tangible support and confidence for risk assets.
Don’t get carried away before the data is released. NFA DYOR
#RWA #PCE数据 #比特币 #加密货币 #Web3
Last night’s market action was quite interesting: Middle East crude exports have returned to the highest level since the war began, the Hormuz blockade has basically been torn open, and WTI dumped 4.8% in one go to around $88. Trump even threw in another remark saying oil prices will collapse. But more than half of U.S. stocks slipped below the 200-day moving average—what the market is really worried about is Wednesday’s PCE. Williams signaled that there may still need to be another rate hike this year, and the probability of a rate hike in October is still hanging around 50%.
$BTC stayed sideways at 83K the whole time—neither could it fall further nor rally. My take is that the bearish effect from the fade in the war premium is offsetting the safe-haven buying pressure; the direction will likely be determined by the PCE.
Watch two points: Bitwise has launched the U.S.’s first spot ETF with staking rewards, $NEAR , and the ETF narrative is still spreading further into copycats. Cboe and S&P Dow Jones are also studying tokenized options—there’s another story to be told for the RWA track. As for ZEC, it’s dropped 12% over two days; the sentiment-driven run in privacy coins is basically cooling off.
In China, the central bank cut PSL by 25bp and added another RMB 200 billion in technology relending—easing is plainly on the table, and it’s tangible support and confidence for risk assets.
Don’t get carried away before the data is released. NFA DYOR
#RWA #PCE数据 #比特币 #加密货币 #Web3