Bitcoin held onto key support amid a surge in long-term US Treasury yields. During Tuesday’s session, BTC/USD traded in a tight range below $84.3K without breaking below $82.5K; this level, according to trader Rekt Capital, is seen as crucial for protecting the upside trend. In the same period, the yield on US 30-year Treasuries topped 5.58%, the highest since June 2002, before easing back to 5.55%. The 10-year yield reached 5.26%, the highest since June 2007.

This round of rising yields came against the backdrop of the US-Iran conflict and uncertainty around global oil supply, weighing on risk assets overall on Monday. QCP Capital cited geopolitical developments and this week’s US macro data as the main drivers of near-term volatility, including Wednesday’s August PCE and Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls.

The pressure on the network side also exists. In its Market Pulse for the week ending September 27, Glassnode noted that both realized and unrealized profits are rising. Overall profitability at the current price level is in a “stretched” state, with profit-taking currently dominating price momentum.

If you look at these lines together, the mechanism is clear: yields on the long end rising suppress risk appetite, while profit-taking positions on-chain create supply. Together, they limit the rebound’s height. And since the $82,500 level hasn’t been broken through, it suggests that there is still support to absorb there. If yields continue to rise and PCE or non-farm payrolls come in stronger, the $82,500 level will be tested again. If yields pull back and the price holds above $84,300, then it is more likely to remain in a range-bound consolidation.

What needs to be confirmed next is whether the 30-year yield can stay below 5.55%, the actual readings for PCE and non-farm payrolls, and whether profit-taking is cooling down under Glassnode’s definition.

Risk disclaimer: This article is for informational interpretation only and does not constitute investment advice.