Micron Technology, the leading U.S. memory chip company, will release its latest financial report after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday (the 30th). What investors are waiting for now may be not just another “better-than-expected” quarter, because the profit threshold the memory chip maker faces has been raised higher and higher by Wall Street.
Before that, Micron had expected that in its fourth fiscal quarter of FY2026, its revenue would be about $50.0 billion, plus or minus $1.0 billion; adjusted earnings per share would be about $3.1, plus or minus $0.1; and its adjusted gross margin would be about 86%. The latest consensus among market analysts is that its results will include revenue of about $50.8 billion, with earnings per share between $3.14 and $3.15. In other words, the average analyst expectation is slightly higher than Micron’s own forecast.
But even more noteworthy is that some analysts’ forecasts are already running ahead of Micron’s. For example, Citigroup analyst Atif Malik expects fourth-quarter revenue of $51.0 billion and EPS of $31.45, and raised his stock price target for Micron from $1,150 to $1,300. Malik isn’t simply betting on artificial intelligence (AI) demand; his upgrade is based on recent changes in chip pricing. He expects Micron’s blended DRAM average selling price to rise about 20% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter, and still increase another roughly 13% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.
UBS is even more optimistic. Its analyst Timothy Arcuri expects Micron’s fourth-quarter revenue to reach $52.4 billion, with EPS of $32.50 and a gross margin of roughly 87.6%, well above Micron’s own 86% forecast. UBS even expects Micron’s first-quarter revenue to be about $59.3 billion, with EPS of around $37.04.
In the past few quarters, Micron has repeatedly and significantly beaten investors’ expectations. In the third fiscal quarter, Micron reported revenue of $41.46 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $25.11; this represents a rapid surge versus the $23.86 billion in revenue and $12.20 in EPS from the second quarter. That’s also created a “high bar” for this earnings report.
The market isn’t just looking for a pretty fourth-quarter earnings number—it wants management to provide a sufficiently strong outlook for the next quarter.
Market analysts are also already turning their attention to fiscal year 2027. For instance, Citigroup’s analyst team expects revenue of $5.7 billion and EPS of $35.25 in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. In other words, Wall Street is betting in advance that Micron’s profitability won’t cool off. Their focus is also on how long Micron can sustain these high profit margins.
Another area worth watching is Micron Technology’s HBM4. Analysts expect the unit price for the next-generation HBM4 could come close to doubling. If that forecast proves true, Micron’s future earnings growth may not rely solely on selling more chips; it could also come from product mix improvements and better pricing.
UBS’s Arcuri goes even further, extending Micron’s strong earnings growth through fiscal year 2028 and saying the company’s profitability is undergoing a “structural reset.” He expects Micron’s EPS in 2028 to reach about $265.65.
Of course, market investors aren’t taking all of these analyst views at face value. Micron’s stock has already surged significantly this year, which means investors have very high expectations for future earnings as well. That’s why analysts say there are three key points to watch in the earnings release on Wednesday: whether fourth-quarter revenue can exceed about $50.8 billion; whether gross margin can hold steady or even surpass 86%; and management’s outlook for profitability in fiscal year 2027.
