After BTC breaks through the previous high, it retraces. It keeps repeatedly testing the 82800 support level, where the support strength is continuously being depleted. A single retracement is a strong-market correction; repeated retracements indicate that market weakness is becoming apparent.
A daily top divergence (price makes a new high, while the MACD is declining) is an important pullback warning signal, and it is not suitable to go long right now.
Key watershed level: 82800
The best-case scenario is range-bound consolidation to digest the top divergence.
The worst-case scenario is a downside breakdown and a pullback.
The probability of moving upward from the current area is less than 20%.
In summary: shorting offers the best risk-reward.

Short conditions: a valid breakdown below 82800 and confirmation will be treated as a short opportunity. The market may then see a decline after what could be a large false breakout on the weekly chart.

Tonight at 20:30, PCE will be released; on Friday, Non-Farm Payrolls.
Currently the market is choppy and consolidating, with no clear breakdown yet.
But the 4-hour rebounds are weaker with each wave. Shorting can still be initiated with the first tranche above 84000.
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