🚨The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October drops sharply from 71% to 49%.

Overnight, the market was fairly choppy: gold rebounded slightly, U.S. stocks closed in the red, and BTC still traded sideways around $83K.

The main pressure still comes from U.S. Treasury yields repeatedly breaking to new highs, overshadowing even positive signals from weakening oil prices, as Iran is reportedly no longer able to prevent oil from flowing through Hormuz.

That said, the downward momentum has been somewhat curbed after New York Fed Chair Williams made a neutral-sounding statement, saying the Fed does not yet need to rush to raise rates and should wait for more data.

At 7:30 PM tonight, the U.S. will release August PCE—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—and the final Q2 GDP data. PCE is expected to tick up slightly versus the previous month.
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