⚠️ $BTC and Macro: Expectations of a less hawkish Fed
1. What has changed
Following remarks by New York Fed President John Williams—stating there is no immediate need to rush an interest rate hike—the probability of a 0.25% rate increase in October dropped from nearly 70% to 51.5%. BTC staged a modest recovery to around $83,800 but remains below the $84,000–$85,000 zone. reuters.com
2. Why it matters
This marks a significant shift from previous macro warnings: immediate pressure for a rate hike has eased, even though long-term yields remain very high and the PCE data release is approaching. Consequently, macro risks for BTC have diminished, though not enough to confirm a technical reversal.
3. Current outlook
- 4H: Neutral–bearish; currently rebounding but has not yet recovered its market structure.
- 1D: Neutral–bullish; continues to hold the $82,000–$83,000 support zone.
- The short-term outlook will improve if BTC closes a 4-hour candle above $84,000; the bullish case becomes clearer upon reclaiming the $85,000–$86,000 range. 4. Key levels to watch
- Support: $82,000–$83,000
- Confirmation of deeper bearish move: 4H close below $82,000
- Regaining balance: $84,000
- Structural recovery: $85,000–$86,000
- Next decisive event: US PCE data on September 30 (tonight)
Note: The information above has been compiled by me with the assistance of AI and is for reference purposes only; it does not constitute investment advice. Decisions should be based on a thorough analysis of actual market fluctuations and individual perspectives.
$NVDAB
1. What has changed
Following remarks by New York Fed President John Williams—stating there is no immediate need to rush an interest rate hike—the probability of a 0.25% rate increase in October dropped from nearly 70% to 51.5%. BTC staged a modest recovery to around $83,800 but remains below the $84,000–$85,000 zone. reuters.com
2. Why it matters
This marks a significant shift from previous macro warnings: immediate pressure for a rate hike has eased, even though long-term yields remain very high and the PCE data release is approaching. Consequently, macro risks for BTC have diminished, though not enough to confirm a technical reversal.
3. Current outlook
- 4H: Neutral–bearish; currently rebounding but has not yet recovered its market structure.
- 1D: Neutral–bullish; continues to hold the $82,000–$83,000 support zone.
- The short-term outlook will improve if BTC closes a 4-hour candle above $84,000; the bullish case becomes clearer upon reclaiming the $85,000–$86,000 range. 4. Key levels to watch
- Support: $82,000–$83,000
- Confirmation of deeper bearish move: 4H close below $82,000
- Regaining balance: $84,000
- Structural recovery: $85,000–$86,000
- Next decisive event: US PCE data on September 30 (tonight)
Note: The information above has been compiled by me with the assistance of AI and is for reference purposes only; it does not constitute investment advice. Decisions should be based on a thorough analysis of actual market fluctuations and individual perspectives.
$NVDAB