The Australian Bureau of Statistics today released August CPI data that was not seasonally adjusted. The year-on-year rate came in at 4%, slightly below the market expectation of 4.1%, but clearly rebounding from the previous value of 3.50%. At the same time, China’s official September manufacturing PMI recorded 50.1, returning above the breakeven line and in line with expectations, up from the prior value of 49.8.
The inflation rebound suggests that price pressures in Australia remain stubborn, and expectations for rate cuts face the risk of being further delayed. Although China’s manufacturing has returned to the expansion zone, the reading just above the breakeven line indicates that the momentum of real-economy recovery is still fragile. Meanwhile, the external demand environment remains complex and challenging.
After the data was released, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell nearly 20 points in the short term to around 0.6975, reflecting the market’s concerns about an imbalance between inflation and growth. Against the backdrop of diverging monetary policies among major central banks and global growth slowing, risk-off sentiment may further support the US dollar, putting pressure on non-USD currencies and commodities.
For the crypto market, inflation persistence in Asia-Pacific economies coexists with a sluggish recovery, meaning global liquidity is unlikely to shift rapidly toward an extremely loose stance. Under macro uncertainty that suppresses risk appetite, risk assets such as $BTC may face tests for a near-term decline in liquidity premia. Investors should be alert to the downside risk of a pullback after a rise.
#Inflation #MacroEconomy #CryptoMarket
The inflation rebound suggests that price pressures in Australia remain stubborn, and expectations for rate cuts face the risk of being further delayed. Although China’s manufacturing has returned to the expansion zone, the reading just above the breakeven line indicates that the momentum of real-economy recovery is still fragile. Meanwhile, the external demand environment remains complex and challenging.
After the data was released, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell nearly 20 points in the short term to around 0.6975, reflecting the market’s concerns about an imbalance between inflation and growth. Against the backdrop of diverging monetary policies among major central banks and global growth slowing, risk-off sentiment may further support the US dollar, putting pressure on non-USD currencies and commodities.
For the crypto market, inflation persistence in Asia-Pacific economies coexists with a sluggish recovery, meaning global liquidity is unlikely to shift rapidly toward an extremely loose stance. Under macro uncertainty that suppresses risk appetite, risk assets such as $BTC may face tests for a near-term decline in liquidity premia. Investors should be alert to the downside risk of a pullback after a rise.
#Inflation #MacroEconomy #CryptoMarket