◆ Morning Briefing · Sep 30
Bonjour. Welcome to Wall Street High Wealth Invest Channel.
Good morning.
【Core Takeaways】
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged slightly lower in the prior trading day. This is normal Consolidation following a Rally, and our stance is to hold positions and not chase prices.
【Overnight Markets】
The S&P 500 closed at 7,670.8, down 0.17%, with a performance of -1.21% over the past week. Nasdaq closed at 26,797.5, down 0.09%, and is still up +1.62% over the past month. VIX was 16.0—slightly lower on the day—but up +12.88% over the past week. The 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 5.255%. Trading in Asia this morning is mixed: the SSE Composite opened up 0.23%, the Hang Seng opened down 0.53%, and China A-share real estate stocks opened lower for adjustment.
【Today’s Headlines】
Australia’s August CPI came in at 4% year-on-year, below expectations of 4.1%. As a result, the AUD/USD fell by nearly 20 pips in the short term to 0.6975. Today, the People’s Bank of China has zero volume for its 7-day reverse repo operations. Tonight, the U.S. will release August PCE. The market generally believes it will be difficult for it to serve as justification for the Fed to pause another Rate Hike. Our interpretation is that the pace of inflation cooling is still not enough to make the Fed pivot. The hawkish discipline should be maintained, and any valuation expansion based on Rate Cut expectations lacks support. With the PBOC conducting zero net liquidity injection alongside weakness in the real estate sector, it suggests that domestic credit expansion remains relatively weak.
【Smart Money Watch】
· Berkshire Hathaway: On 09-28 sold 40,000 shares of BRK.A at an average price of $503.09, leaving 70,000 shares (Form 4, filed 09-29)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): ARKK reduced GOLDMAN FS TRSY OBLIG INST 468 by -8%, about $5.0M (09-29 holdings)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): ARKW added to GOLDMAN FS TRSY OBLIG INST 468 by +23%, about $1.0M (09-29 holdings)
Our interpretation: Berkshire trimming its own Class A shares around the ~$503 area looks more like contraction near the upper edge of its intrinsic valuation rather than a bearish view on the whole. ARK, between ARKK and ARKW, reduced and then added to the same cash-management-type instrument, which is a portfolio-level rebalance—not a directional bet. Please note that these are delayed public filings. Form 4 reports within two business days; 13F is quarterly; and lawmakers’ reports can take up to 45 days. They can only be used as reference and do not constitute copy-trade signals.
【Stock Movers】
· BE +11.1%: On 09-29 Bloom Energy raised its earnings guidance (GuruFocus.com). Raising guidance is a company-level improvement in fundamentals, different from a sentiment-driven market move. Going forward, we need to watch whether guidance can be converted into orders and cash flow.
【Portfolio Update】
Of the previously disclosed 7 positions, none has reached the order trigger price. We maintain our original plan and do not chase.
【Impact on Crypto】
BTC is trading at $83,378, down -0.34% over the past 24 hours—largely flat. The 10-Year Treasury Yield has risen to 5.255%, further increasing the holding cost of non-yielding assets. This is the most direct transmission to BTC right now. Against the backdrop of the Fed staying hawkish and the lack of a solid basis for Rate Cut expectations, we do not believe this setup supports adding leverage. Leverage positions should remain restrained.
【Today’s Stance】
Today’s risk appetite is broadly unchanged and slightly cautious. DXY at 101.4 and the 10-Year Treasury Yield at 5.255% impose constraints on high-valuation assets. The relative advantage goes to assets with stable cash flow and low sensitivity to interest rates. We remain restrained on adding new positions; leverage should not be increased. We will wait to reassess after the PCE data lands.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #BTC #Macro
Your private advisor on Wall Street.
Bonne journée.
Bonjour. Welcome to Wall Street High Wealth Invest Channel.
Good morning.
【Core Takeaways】
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged slightly lower in the prior trading day. This is normal Consolidation following a Rally, and our stance is to hold positions and not chase prices.
【Overnight Markets】
The S&P 500 closed at 7,670.8, down 0.17%, with a performance of -1.21% over the past week. Nasdaq closed at 26,797.5, down 0.09%, and is still up +1.62% over the past month. VIX was 16.0—slightly lower on the day—but up +12.88% over the past week. The 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 5.255%. Trading in Asia this morning is mixed: the SSE Composite opened up 0.23%, the Hang Seng opened down 0.53%, and China A-share real estate stocks opened lower for adjustment.
【Today’s Headlines】
Australia’s August CPI came in at 4% year-on-year, below expectations of 4.1%. As a result, the AUD/USD fell by nearly 20 pips in the short term to 0.6975. Today, the People’s Bank of China has zero volume for its 7-day reverse repo operations. Tonight, the U.S. will release August PCE. The market generally believes it will be difficult for it to serve as justification for the Fed to pause another Rate Hike. Our interpretation is that the pace of inflation cooling is still not enough to make the Fed pivot. The hawkish discipline should be maintained, and any valuation expansion based on Rate Cut expectations lacks support. With the PBOC conducting zero net liquidity injection alongside weakness in the real estate sector, it suggests that domestic credit expansion remains relatively weak.
【Smart Money Watch】
· Berkshire Hathaway: On 09-28 sold 40,000 shares of BRK.A at an average price of $503.09, leaving 70,000 shares (Form 4, filed 09-29)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): ARKK reduced GOLDMAN FS TRSY OBLIG INST 468 by -8%, about $5.0M (09-29 holdings)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): ARKW added to GOLDMAN FS TRSY OBLIG INST 468 by +23%, about $1.0M (09-29 holdings)
Our interpretation: Berkshire trimming its own Class A shares around the ~$503 area looks more like contraction near the upper edge of its intrinsic valuation rather than a bearish view on the whole. ARK, between ARKK and ARKW, reduced and then added to the same cash-management-type instrument, which is a portfolio-level rebalance—not a directional bet. Please note that these are delayed public filings. Form 4 reports within two business days; 13F is quarterly; and lawmakers’ reports can take up to 45 days. They can only be used as reference and do not constitute copy-trade signals.
【Stock Movers】
· BE +11.1%: On 09-29 Bloom Energy raised its earnings guidance (GuruFocus.com). Raising guidance is a company-level improvement in fundamentals, different from a sentiment-driven market move. Going forward, we need to watch whether guidance can be converted into orders and cash flow.
【Portfolio Update】
Of the previously disclosed 7 positions, none has reached the order trigger price. We maintain our original plan and do not chase.
【Impact on Crypto】
BTC is trading at $83,378, down -0.34% over the past 24 hours—largely flat. The 10-Year Treasury Yield has risen to 5.255%, further increasing the holding cost of non-yielding assets. This is the most direct transmission to BTC right now. Against the backdrop of the Fed staying hawkish and the lack of a solid basis for Rate Cut expectations, we do not believe this setup supports adding leverage. Leverage positions should remain restrained.
【Today’s Stance】
Today’s risk appetite is broadly unchanged and slightly cautious. DXY at 101.4 and the 10-Year Treasury Yield at 5.255% impose constraints on high-valuation assets. The relative advantage goes to assets with stable cash flow and low sensitivity to interest rates. We remain restrained on adding new positions; leverage should not be increased. We will wait to reassess after the PCE data lands.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #BTC #Macro
Your private advisor on Wall Street.
Bonne journée.
