ENA up 56% in the past month.

In the same period, the “treasury wrapper” behind it has surged even more aggressively—according to some calculations, from mid-August to the end of September, the shares of a certain stablecoin treasury vehicle rose by about 431%. ENA itself was up about 203%, outpacing by 2.12x.

In other words, the gains leading the way reflect the expectation that “this company will keep buying ENA,” not protocol revenue.

A transaction just came out on-chain: a new address withdrew 18.84 million ENA—about $4.91 million—from an institutional custody channel. The unit price was around $0.2607.

A new address doesn’t necessarily mean a new buyer. Funds moving custody could point in either direction.

On the other hand, according to public discussion, on September 28 the SEC updated its Q&A on token repurchases—though this update still awaits confirmation of the official interpretation. The update suggests that only when a product is already available and there is no central party, an issuer’s announcement of a repurchase is less likely to constitute an investment contract promise.

Ethena has been discussed publicly as part of the group that “is trying to do buybacks,” but whether it’s a mechanism-level feature or a team-driven decision is still unclear.

My take: this round of pricing is buying expectations layered on top of each other—not cash flow.

Question for you: if the final determination is that the buyback is a team-decision type, then in this 56%, how much is the regulatory discount that would need to be returned?