9/30 Report
The Fed’s comments today were divisive.
Williams said another rate hike might be possible within the year, but “no need to rush.” BAll said further adjustments may be needed. M u s a l l a m said current policy is actually still somewhat loose. Goolsbee, meanwhile, described himself as one of the more optimistic officials. Market interpretation has been relatively dovish: short-term yields have clearly fallen back, the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to 50%. But by contrast, 30-year U.S. Treasuries have surged to 5.6%, and the paths of short- and long-end yields have moved completely differently.
More striking, Iran’s currency has collapsed. The rial has fallen to more than 2.5 million per 1 U.S. dollar—an all-time low. The speaker of Iran’s parliament delivered tough remarks the same day: Iran can’t sell oil, and neither can anyone else; Iran doesn’t have security guarantees, and other people’s infrastructure shouldn’t expect safety either. This kind of collective-punishment-style threat has not been made in this round so far. However, British media says the mediators are working to restart negotiations, and the draft’s core themes are lifting sanctions and opening the strait. So while the rhetoric is harsh, the door hasn’t been fully closed yet.
In addition, Trump today signed a “binding” document with major AI companies and even renamed AI to SI. Details are not yet clear, but this kind of official move to regulate AI is uncommon.
#FederalReserve #Iran #AI
The Fed’s comments today were divisive.
Williams said another rate hike might be possible within the year, but “no need to rush.” BAll said further adjustments may be needed. M u s a l l a m said current policy is actually still somewhat loose. Goolsbee, meanwhile, described himself as one of the more optimistic officials. Market interpretation has been relatively dovish: short-term yields have clearly fallen back, the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to 50%. But by contrast, 30-year U.S. Treasuries have surged to 5.6%, and the paths of short- and long-end yields have moved completely differently.
More striking, Iran’s currency has collapsed. The rial has fallen to more than 2.5 million per 1 U.S. dollar—an all-time low. The speaker of Iran’s parliament delivered tough remarks the same day: Iran can’t sell oil, and neither can anyone else; Iran doesn’t have security guarantees, and other people’s infrastructure shouldn’t expect safety either. This kind of collective-punishment-style threat has not been made in this round so far. However, British media says the mediators are working to restart negotiations, and the draft’s core themes are lifting sanctions and opening the strait. So while the rhetoric is harsh, the door hasn’t been fully closed yet.
In addition, Trump today signed a “binding” document with major AI companies and even renamed AI to SI. Details are not yet clear, but this kind of official move to regulate AI is uncommon.
#FederalReserve #Iran #AI