ETF capital turns positive after ShanZhai Q3 signal
CoinGlass shows that on Sep 28, spot BTC ETF turned from net outflows to net inflows of about $367 million (led by IBIT, etc.); the listing of a NEAR ETF boosts expectations for a ShanZhai season. BTC 4H RSI at 62 hasn’t entered overbought territory yet, so there is still upside momentum. But fear/greed at 63 (neutral-to-greedy) limits chase-buying appetite; high-level coins like LINK and APT give back (LINK 24h -7.64%、#APT -5.54%).
Reasons: ETF “turning positive” plus SEC comments, along with the NEAR ETF lift, but long-end rates and high-position profit-taking suppress the market; price action is bifurcated.
Trend: After breaking out, the market chops sideways and rotates; in a real ShanZhai season, BTC’s proportion is expected to fall while ETH/BTC rises. High-spike coins (AAVE +9%、AVAX +5%) won’t be chased.
Related coins: $AAVE、$AVAX、$NEAR、$LDO 、BONK、$DOT are watchlist items; $LINK、$APT are likely to retreat, so avoid.
Gold $XAU: 4215.0, up 0.84% (after falling 4 on a single day from Sep 28 futures to 4148, then repaired). Reason: 30Y U.S. Treasury yield stays high at 5.56%, suppressing non-yielding assets, but central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization are the medium-term floor. A small recovery on Sep 30. As long as long-end yields don’t fall back below 5.2, gold may struggle to surge; a “true rebound” requires yields to ease.
Silver $XAG: 61.745, up 0.97%. Industrial attributes provide support, but speculation favors gold more; silver is more volatile than gold. Support at 61.7、60; pressure at 62.1、63, then look toward 65. Watch rates and the mood for safe-haven demand.
Copper $COPPER: 6.653, up 0.74%, still hovering near the 52-week high of 6.929. AI data centers, grid upgrades, and electric vehicles consume copper—supply is relatively tight. However, rate suppression triggers pullbacks. Support at 6.65、6.44; pressure at 6.664, then look toward 6.89. The risk of chasing at high levels accumulates.
Palladium $XPD and Platinum $XPT: Palladium supply is concentrated in Russia and South Africa—when geopolitics tightens, it jumps; platinum follows. Palladium pressure 1237, support 1230、1200; platinum pressure 1731, support 1720、1700. Small-cap instruments have poor liquidity—small positions only.
Natural gas $NATGAS: 3.023, up 0.4%. A mild winter expectation and high inventory pressure weigh on it, but demand from off-grid power generation lifts the outlook. Support at 3.01; pressure at 3.03, then look toward 3.3.
Crude oil CL and Brent BZ: WTI 89.22, Brent around 91. After rate hikes, prices pulled back from highs to the 89 area. The core variables are the Strait of Hormuz situation and the U.S.-Iran negotiations—any blockade or attack rumors push oil higher; but high oil prices also kill demand, capping upside under the demand-destruction theme. WTI support 89、86; pressure 90、94, then look toward 98.
CoinGlass shows that on Sep 28, spot BTC ETF turned from net outflows to net inflows of about $367 million (led by IBIT, etc.); the listing of a NEAR ETF boosts expectations for a ShanZhai season. BTC 4H RSI at 62 hasn’t entered overbought territory yet, so there is still upside momentum. But fear/greed at 63 (neutral-to-greedy) limits chase-buying appetite; high-level coins like LINK and APT give back (LINK 24h -7.64%、#APT -5.54%).
Reasons: ETF “turning positive” plus SEC comments, along with the NEAR ETF lift, but long-end rates and high-position profit-taking suppress the market; price action is bifurcated.
Trend: After breaking out, the market chops sideways and rotates; in a real ShanZhai season, BTC’s proportion is expected to fall while ETH/BTC rises. High-spike coins (AAVE +9%、AVAX +5%) won’t be chased.
Related coins: $AAVE、$AVAX、$NEAR、$LDO 、BONK、$DOT are watchlist items; $LINK、$APT are likely to retreat, so avoid.
Gold $XAU: 4215.0, up 0.84% (after falling 4 on a single day from Sep 28 futures to 4148, then repaired). Reason: 30Y U.S. Treasury yield stays high at 5.56%, suppressing non-yielding assets, but central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization are the medium-term floor. A small recovery on Sep 30. As long as long-end yields don’t fall back below 5.2, gold may struggle to surge; a “true rebound” requires yields to ease.
Silver $XAG: 61.745, up 0.97%. Industrial attributes provide support, but speculation favors gold more; silver is more volatile than gold. Support at 61.7、60; pressure at 62.1、63, then look toward 65. Watch rates and the mood for safe-haven demand.
Copper $COPPER: 6.653, up 0.74%, still hovering near the 52-week high of 6.929. AI data centers, grid upgrades, and electric vehicles consume copper—supply is relatively tight. However, rate suppression triggers pullbacks. Support at 6.65、6.44; pressure at 6.664, then look toward 6.89. The risk of chasing at high levels accumulates.
Palladium $XPD and Platinum $XPT: Palladium supply is concentrated in Russia and South Africa—when geopolitics tightens, it jumps; platinum follows. Palladium pressure 1237, support 1230、1200; platinum pressure 1731, support 1720、1700. Small-cap instruments have poor liquidity—small positions only.
Natural gas $NATGAS: 3.023, up 0.4%. A mild winter expectation and high inventory pressure weigh on it, but demand from off-grid power generation lifts the outlook. Support at 3.01; pressure at 3.03, then look toward 3.3.
Crude oil CL and Brent BZ: WTI 89.22, Brent around 91. After rate hikes, prices pulled back from highs to the 89 area. The core variables are the Strait of Hormuz situation and the U.S.-Iran negotiations—any blockade or attack rumors push oil higher; but high oil prices also kill demand, capping upside under the demand-destruction theme. WTI support 89、86; pressure 90、94, then look toward 98.
