🗓️ September 30｜Crypto Daily
The market is entering the “data eve”: BTC holds around 83,000, but across the whole market the past 24 hours are still shrinking. Tonight’s PCE is the single shot that truly decides the direction.
📊 09:00 Market Wrap (Beijing Time)
BTC: $83,420, 24h +0.37%
ETH: $2,670.84, 24h -0.17%
SOL: $118.89, 24h +0.73%
Total market cap is about $2.86 trillion, down 3.07% in 24h. BTC dominance is 58.34%, with trading volume of roughly $117 billion (24h). On the surface, major coins aren’t moving much, but capital is clearly taking a defensive stance. BTC’s relative strength also suggests the market still isn’t truly willing to scale up risk.
The most important things today:
1）ETF flows are still coming in, but the pace has clearly slowed. The latest complete publicly available trading day is September 28, not today. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $31.07 million; ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $17.10 million; SOL ETFs saw net inflows of about $7.70 million. The direction is still positive—just don’t misread “ongoing inflows” as “about to take off immediately.”
2）The Bitget incident involving about $388 million in stolen funds continues to unfold. The attacker swapped roughly 2,390 ETH for 75.2 BTC via THORChain. Bitget says the vulnerability came from a third-party security product; losses are covered by a protection fund, and withdrawals are being restored in phases. The security incident isn’t over yet—on-chain tracking and the risk of platform run are still things to watch.
3）Regulated products keep expanding. Bitwise’s first U.S. spot NEAR ETF began trading on September 29 on NYSE Arca, with a management fee of 0.75%. It also includes staking rewards in the NAV. The market may not buy in immediately, but the “turning alt-asset into an ETF” trend is still moving forward.
4）Regulatory boundaries continue to be clarified. The U.S. SEC’s latest FAQ makes clear that token buybacks, network upgrades, or even promotions on their own do not automatically turn a token into a security. It’s not a full green light, but at least projects now know which actions won’t naturally trip over the line.
Next up, the focus is on:
• Tonight 20:30: U.S. August PCE, core PCE, and the final GDP estimate for Q2. If inflation comes in above expectations, it keeps pressure on rate cuts and risk assets; if below expectations, BTC will have conditions to retest the upper range.
• October 1 at 22:00: U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• October 2 at 20:30: U.S. September non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage data. This will continue to reset market expectations for the Fed path.
My take: It’s not weak, but it’s absolutely not “easy mode” either. BTC has been bouncing repeatedly in the 82,000–85,000 USD range. ETF buying provides a floor, while bond yields and macro data are capping the upside. Before tonight’s data is released, the odds of chasing are generally not great. If price breaks higher and holds above 85,000 with volume, then it’s more reasonable to discuss trend continuation. If it breaks below 82,000, first watch around 80,000 for support.
Trading strategy: Keep position size light, wait for confirmation after a breakout, and follow only then. Don’t predict ahead of time or go all-in; place stop-loss before entering the order.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Crypto assets are highly volatile. The above is based on market observations only and does not constitute investment advice.
The market is entering the “data eve”: BTC holds around 83,000, but across the whole market the past 24 hours are still shrinking. Tonight’s PCE is the single shot that truly decides the direction.
📊 09:00 Market Wrap (Beijing Time)
BTC: $83,420, 24h +0.37%
ETH: $2,670.84, 24h -0.17%
SOL: $118.89, 24h +0.73%
Total market cap is about $2.86 trillion, down 3.07% in 24h. BTC dominance is 58.34%, with trading volume of roughly $117 billion (24h). On the surface, major coins aren’t moving much, but capital is clearly taking a defensive stance. BTC’s relative strength also suggests the market still isn’t truly willing to scale up risk.
The most important things today:
1）ETF flows are still coming in, but the pace has clearly slowed. The latest complete publicly available trading day is September 28, not today. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $31.07 million; ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $17.10 million; SOL ETFs saw net inflows of about $7.70 million. The direction is still positive—just don’t misread “ongoing inflows” as “about to take off immediately.”
2）The Bitget incident involving about $388 million in stolen funds continues to unfold. The attacker swapped roughly 2,390 ETH for 75.2 BTC via THORChain. Bitget says the vulnerability came from a third-party security product; losses are covered by a protection fund, and withdrawals are being restored in phases. The security incident isn’t over yet—on-chain tracking and the risk of platform run are still things to watch.
3）Regulated products keep expanding. Bitwise’s first U.S. spot NEAR ETF began trading on September 29 on NYSE Arca, with a management fee of 0.75%. It also includes staking rewards in the NAV. The market may not buy in immediately, but the “turning alt-asset into an ETF” trend is still moving forward.
4）Regulatory boundaries continue to be clarified. The U.S. SEC’s latest FAQ makes clear that token buybacks, network upgrades, or even promotions on their own do not automatically turn a token into a security. It’s not a full green light, but at least projects now know which actions won’t naturally trip over the line.
Next up, the focus is on:
• Tonight 20:30: U.S. August PCE, core PCE, and the final GDP estimate for Q2. If inflation comes in above expectations, it keeps pressure on rate cuts and risk assets; if below expectations, BTC will have conditions to retest the upper range.
• October 1 at 22:00: U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• October 2 at 20:30: U.S. September non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage data. This will continue to reset market expectations for the Fed path.
My take: It’s not weak, but it’s absolutely not “easy mode” either. BTC has been bouncing repeatedly in the 82,000–85,000 USD range. ETF buying provides a floor, while bond yields and macro data are capping the upside. Before tonight’s data is released, the odds of chasing are generally not great. If price breaks higher and holds above 85,000 with volume, then it’s more reasonable to discuss trend continuation. If it breaks below 82,000, first watch around 80,000 for support.
Trading strategy: Keep position size light, wait for confirmation after a breakout, and follow only then. Don’t predict ahead of time or go all-in; place stop-loss before entering the order.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Crypto assets are highly volatile. The above is based on market observations only and does not constitute investment advice.