$NEAR The current order book is the first cooling period after a sharp surge. On 9/17, it was still basing around $2.3; within two weeks it pulled up to $5.39, and within 30 days it more than doubled—up about one and a half times. On 9/29, a -10% daily candle appeared. Yesterday, it reclaimed $4.94.
Trading volume is steadily fading: turnover dropped from about 2.51B on 9/24 to around 1.3B. This doesn’t look like panic selling; it’s more like profit-taking after the sudden rally starting to sit down and do the math. $NEAR ranks 21st by market cap, but after a +158% move over 30 days, any red (down) candle can be amplified and interpreted in exaggerated ways.
What I care about more is what is funding this upswing. If this is a narrative of re-pricing the public chain, then the trapped supply density above $5—where from $10 to $20, the shares left behind by historical downtrends—means that any further rise requires entirely new external liquidity to absorb each additional dollar upward. This is completely different from the logic of a “rally from the bottom.”
As long as the low from 9/29 holds and doesn’t break, $4.9 is the default ceasefire line between bulls and bears. But if turnover continues to shrink while price stays above $5, this move may be nothing more than an escape attempt within a blood-draw行情 (liquidity extraction move). A true re-valuation of public chains would require volume big enough to layer by layer eat through $5.39 and the trapped-supply zone above it. The market hasn’t provided that answer yet.
Trading volume is steadily fading: turnover dropped from about 2.51B on 9/24 to around 1.3B. This doesn’t look like panic selling; it’s more like profit-taking after the sudden rally starting to sit down and do the math. $NEAR ranks 21st by market cap, but after a +158% move over 30 days, any red (down) candle can be amplified and interpreted in exaggerated ways.
What I care about more is what is funding this upswing. If this is a narrative of re-pricing the public chain, then the trapped supply density above $5—where from $10 to $20, the shares left behind by historical downtrends—means that any further rise requires entirely new external liquidity to absorb each additional dollar upward. This is completely different from the logic of a “rally from the bottom.”
As long as the low from 9/29 holds and doesn’t break, $4.9 is the default ceasefire line between bulls and bears. But if turnover continues to shrink while price stays above $5, this move may be nothing more than an escape attempt within a blood-draw行情 (liquidity extraction move). A true re-valuation of public chains would require volume big enough to layer by layer eat through $5.39 and the trapped-supply zone above it. The market hasn’t provided that answer yet.