⚡ Scenario goal SHORT reached.
close 0.0179 / level 0.0182 · volume 0.75× / target 1.25×
📉 SHORT · $PLUME (PLUME/USDT) · downtrend scenario · context 15m, indicators 15m, trigger 5m
📍 Scenario: Premium zone not found; technical retest of EMA50 is being tracked.
📊 MARKET
💵 Price: $0.01788 · 1h +0.28% · 24h +1.48%.
💧 In 1h: volume $133,246.491 · trades 2 604.
📊 M5 Activity: volume $4,797.7854 · trades 150 · activity score 27/100.
📚 Order book ±1%: depth $255,455.2241 · spread 0.06%.
🛡️ DATA CHECK AND MARKET TYPE
✅ Data audit: passed · 5m passed · 15m passed.
⚠️ Market quality: error ❗
🛡️ Risk assessment: BLOCKED · mandatory checks not passed · volume is below the minimum operating level; candle, volume, and level context do not align ❗
🏷️ Context: Spot · an analytical hypothesis about a possible sale of an asset that already exists in the Spot portfolio; a short position is not opened.
🧭 TECHNICAL PICTURE
🧭 Trigger status: Premium zone not found; waiting for a retest of the 15m EMA50 ❗
📉 Structural breakdown to the downside has been confirmed.
🔎 Trigger check:
↩️ EMA50 retest: none ❗
🕯️ 5m close with rejection downward: none ❗
💧 Volume vs. median: no data · filter not passed ❗
💰 Close: $0.01786.
🔵 Trigger level: $0.01818208.
🕯️ 5m candle context: ⚠️ No suitable bearish zone for candle verification · reason: · No confirmed zone for this direction. ❗
📉 SHORT context: price below EMA50 and VWAP (15m).
📐 Price below EMA 21 of the selected context.
📊 Indicators of the selected context:
〽️ EMA 21: $0.01806423 · price below
〽️ EMA 50: $0.01816948 · price below
〽️ EMA 200: $0.0181334 · price below
⚖️ VWAP: $0.01810293 · price below
🌡️ RSI 14: 39.4
🧱 STRUCTURE AND PD ARRAY
🗓️ Senior filter 1D: mixed structure · neutral context · major swing levels: support $0.01359 · resistance $0.02002. D1 sets the context, but does not cancel the 15m zone and the 5m trigger.
📐 24h Dealing Range: $0.0173–$0.01925 · EQ $0.018275 · price in Discount · source: closed 15m candles over the last 24h.
🧱 Verified OB/BB/PD Array not found in the required half of the range ❗
💎 For SHORT, Premium zones (upper half of the range) are considered; Discount by itself does not strengthen the sell scenario. ❗
⚠️ SCENARIO BLOCKED: volume is below the minimum operating level; candle, volume, and level context do not align; volume pace is decreasing. Publication is subject to separate confirmation by the operator; the system did not approve the scenario.
🧭 Pilot Fibonacci model SHORT · 15m: correction inside the working zone; waiting for a breakout of its structure.
📐 Impulse down: $0.01857 → $0.01764 · structure break; candle body 1.57× the median · volume 1.71× the median.
↩️ Correction: 3 counter-trend candles · depth 45.2% · 38.2–61.8% zone ($0.01799526–$0.01821474).
🔵 Confirmation: 15m close below $0.01773.
🛑 Cancel pilot scenario: 15m close above $0.01837098 (78.6% of the impulse).
🧪 This is a separate observational model: it currently does not change the auto-publication filters; probability is not calculated.
🎯 OBSERVATION PLAN
🔻 SHORT entry: 5m close below $0.01818208 · waiting for confirmation.
🛑 Stop/cancel SHORT: 5m close above $0.01831.
🎯 TP1 SHORT · 1R: $0.01800833.
🏁 TP2 SHORT · 2R: $0.01792624 · theoretical level.
⚠️ Premium zone not found; these levels are a technical fallback, not an OB/BB or supply zone.
🔵 Confirmation: wait for a retest of the 15m EMA50 ($0.01818208) and a 5m close below it with volume confirmation.
🛑 Cancel: 5m close above the confirmed swing high $0.01831.
🧪 STATISTICS
📈 Confirmed downward impulses in 24h: 2 impulses.
🎲 Probability: numeric percentage not calculated — retest outcomes have not been accumulated yet and not verified ❗
⚠️ Analytical draft, not a trading recommendation and not a deal team. Verify levels on the chart and consider your own risk ❗
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