Bernstein said that Samsung Electronics is preparing to increase its market share in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) segment, while keeping the company’s target share price at 440,000 won in a note published on Tuesday.
Analyst Mark Li cut the target share price of its rival, SK Hynix, to 2.7 million won from 3.3 million won, citing more conservative assumptions about the development of HBM and price dynamics. He maintained a “Buy the Market” rating for Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk, as well as a “Sell the Market” rating for Kioxia.
“Among the current suppliers, we still prefer Samsung,” Lee wrote.
Bernstein cut its HBM price forecasts for 2027 after export data for Korean memory for July and August showed strong signals for Samsung but weaker ones from SK Hynix’s HBM production site.
Ongoing reports of supply difficulties with HBM4 have also forced Lee to slightly push back the projected timeline for the transition from the current HBM3E generation. As a result, he expects HBM to remain less profitable than standard DRAM in 2027.
The company expects prices for conventional memory to rise by 15–20% in the third quarter compared with the previous one, and by a few more percent in the fourth. The shortage should persist in 2027, but constraints in long-term contracts will limit further price increases.
Bernstein continues to expect normalization of prices in 2028 as production capacity grows and AI investment collides with constraints such as borrowing costs and environmental requirements. According to the company’s forecast, suppliers’ gross margin will fall from about 90% at its peak to around 70% by the end of 2028.
Bernstein raised Kioxia’s target price to 49,000 yen from 40,000 yen amid an improved outlook for NAND memory prices, but kept the “Underperform” rating. The reason cited was a threat from China’s YMTC company that is more significant than expected. Micron’s target price remained at $1,300, and SanDisk’s at $3,000.