Let’s get everyone updated on a major macro signal: the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has surged to 5.24%, the highest level since 2019. Now, the yield is even higher than the earnings yield of the S&P 500—an outlook that we haven’t seen in 25 years.
Oil prices have been trending upward, bringing inflation concerns back to the forefront. Global capital is now extremely anxious, with both equities and bonds under pressure at the same time. Bitcoin has dropped to 83,000, and many people are interpreting this macro data as a reason to turn bearish.
Here’s what needs to be made clear: this spike in U.S. Treasury yields is mainly driven by the combination of increased U.S. fiscal debt pressure, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, and a resurgence in inflation expectations.
When the sovereign debt system starts to expose problems, the value of scarce hard assets will stand out. The crisis caused by supply shortages, over the medium to long term, will strengthen Bitcoin’s narrative as a safe-haven asset.
But! A medium- to long-term thesis doesn’t mean an immediate surge.
In the near term, the high-interest-rate environment will still weigh on risk assets, and market volatility is likely to persist. Long-term logic is long-term logic—short-term trading shouldn’t be blindly over-allocated. Support around the 83,000 level should be watched closely, and position sizing must be kept under control.#股票财报季 #英伟达批准1500亿美元回购 #BitMine以太坊持仓突破600万枚 #Bitget黑客盗资转移被拒退回 #Strategy增持1666枚BTC持仓达847666枚
Oil prices have been trending upward, bringing inflation concerns back to the forefront. Global capital is now extremely anxious, with both equities and bonds under pressure at the same time. Bitcoin has dropped to 83,000, and many people are interpreting this macro data as a reason to turn bearish.
Here’s what needs to be made clear: this spike in U.S. Treasury yields is mainly driven by the combination of increased U.S. fiscal debt pressure, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, and a resurgence in inflation expectations.
When the sovereign debt system starts to expose problems, the value of scarce hard assets will stand out. The crisis caused by supply shortages, over the medium to long term, will strengthen Bitcoin’s narrative as a safe-haven asset.
But! A medium- to long-term thesis doesn’t mean an immediate surge.
In the near term, the high-interest-rate environment will still weigh on risk assets, and market volatility is likely to persist. Long-term logic is long-term logic—short-term trading shouldn’t be blindly over-allocated. Support around the 83,000 level should be watched closely, and position sizing must be kept under control.#股票财报季 #英伟达批准1500亿美元回购 #BitMine以太坊持仓突破600万枚 #Bitget黑客盗资转移被拒退回 #Strategy增持1666枚BTC持仓达847666枚
