Repeating this week's radar 22-26 SET - the following still applies:
This week's game is macro + options
-$BTC now: holding $84k after the Fed raised the rate to 4.00% last week. Showing resilience, but historic compression in the Bollinger Bands = an explosion to one side or the other.
-Second 22/09 (TODAY): SEC launches pilot of tokenized stocks. Institutions will be able to trade real shares on-chain. It's the biggest RWA test of the year.
-Wednesday 24/09: US unemployment benefits + sales of new homes (700k expected)
-Thursday 25/09: Durable goods + Michigan Sentiment (expected: 47.8)
-Friday 26/09: KEY DAY - $23 BILLION in options expire $BTC /$ETH . Max Pain at $110k. At the last similar expiration, there were $1.48 billion in liquidations.
Scenarios for BTC:
1. Holds above $109k = stabilizes and targets $112k
2. Drops below $108k = opens the door to $96k
3. In the medium term, the market is still betting on $120k–140k calls
My read: Monday through Wednesday, the market will move sideways/stall; Thursday and Friday, extreme volatility. Absolutely no trading with leverage as Friday approaches.
