Wow, the copycat market is going crazy today—everything is up in double digits!

0G is up to 30%. BTW is up 32%, INIT up 24%, GRASS up 20%, and AAVE surged to 176, hitting a new high in the past month. BTC is stuck at 83,000 and doesn’t move at all—the money has all run into the copycats.

But I watched AAVE’s data all afternoon, and I want to give everyone a heads-up. AAVE spot is up 14%, and trading volume has jumped 3x—looks exciting. However, contract open interest increased 22% in one day. The price rushed to 176, only to get knocked back to 169. The large-player long/short ratio slid from 2.27 to 1.99 over 12 hours. The higher the price rises, the fewer longs the big players hold—pump and then retreat. On the 15:00 candle, the proactive buy/sell dropped to 0.84 compared to earlier, and sell orders were stacked up. This move was from 145 to 176—take profits early. Don’t chase. If it gets smashed back below 160, the big players will flip and run; the downside could be brutal.

HBAR is doing the opposite. It kept rallying for six straight days, and today it dumped with volume up 12%. The price crashed from 0.12 back to 0.111. Contract open interest shrank 11% in one day, from 66 million U to 52 million U. But the large-player long/short ratio actually climbed from 2.2 to 2.67, setting a new high. Retail is running, while big players are buying against the trend. Proactive buy/sell got dumped to 0.77 around noon, and then it rallied back to around 1. Someone is really stepping in with real money—the funding rate is still positive and hasn’t collapsed. If 0.11 can’t be held, everything being picked up is catching a falling knife. If it holds, there’s another wave coming.

Don’t chase INIT either. Contract open interest value jumped 47% in a day, while the price only rose 24%—leverage got on first. On the 16:00 candle, an hour saw volume explode to 49.65 million, it surged to 0.116 and then got tossed back to 0.11. With massive volume and stalled upside, the “top” vibes are very strong. BTW is similar: this month is up more than 2x, but contract open interest only increased by about 10%. The spot push isn’t getting leverage follow-through—when the move tops out, it can end with a sudden hard brake.

$AAVE $HBAR $INIT
#山寨季 #DeFi